The market currently assigns an 88% probability to DPK candidate Chong Won-oh, which diverges significantly from mainstream political analysis and polling that indicate a much closer race. Incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon, as a key figure of the ruling party, still retains a strong base and the advantage of administrative resources. The extreme pricing in the prediction market likely reflects short-term hype surrounding the recent DPK primary results, failing to fully price in the complexities of the general election and the incumbent's structural advantages.