[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume (~$51) for this event, visit the Polymarket page to inspect the bid-ask spread and depth of the Order Book. Analyze whether the current odds reflect genuine election sentiment or price distortion due to liquidity checks. Is there any arbitrage room?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume (~$51) for this event, visit the Polymarket page to inspect the bid-ask spread and depth of the Order Book. Analyze whether the current odds reflect genuine election sentiment or price distortion due to liquidity checks. Is there any arbitrage room?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 ratings for 'Arizona's 6th Congressional District (AZ-06)' from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., 'Toss-up' or 'Lean R'). Compare these expert ratings with the current implied probabilities on the prediction market for any significant discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 ratings for 'Arizona's 6th Congressional District (AZ-06)' from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., 'Toss-up' or 'Lean R'). Compare these expert ratings with the current implied probabilities on the prediction market for any significant discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision] Opportunity Cost of Capital: With the current date being March 2026 and the election resolution in November, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital for roughly 8 months (compared to risk-free yields of ~4-5% in DeFi or Treasuries). Does the current potential ROI justify this long-term capital lock-up?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision] Opportunity Cost of Capital: With the current date being March 2026 and the election resolution in November, calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital for roughly 8 months (compared to risk-free yields of ~4-5% in DeFi or Treasuries). Does the current potential ROI justify this long-term capital lock-up?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

AZ-06 House Election Winner

Politics|$206 Vol|

203 days 16 hrs

AZ-06 House Election Winner - AI Found +19.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.11 14:08

Top Undervalued

+19.5¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+16¢

Democratic Party(No)

AZ-06 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +19.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market has undergone a significant correction, with the Democratic probability dropping from abo...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

25.5¢

74.5¢

45¢

55¢

+19.5¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

71¢

29¢

55¢

45¢

0¢

+16¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The Democratic Party price plunged from 72c to 57c, while the Republican Party price surged from 30c to 44c. This sharp correction was likely driven by new critical polling data or the incumbent releasing better-than-expected fundraising reports, forcing the market to dial back its prior overconfidence in a Democratic flip. March 5, 2026 - March 9, 2026: The Democratic Party price rose from 65c to 70.5c, signaling increased market confidence in a seat flip likely driven by negative sentiment against the incumbent, though the move did not breach the 10c alert threshold. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026: The Democratic Party price drifted down from 64c to 58.5c, and the Republican Party price fell from 36.5c to 31.5c. While neither move exceeded the 10c threshold, the simultaneous decline pushed the total implied probability below 100%, indicating a liquidity gap at that time.