[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest live data for the 'California Governor Election Winner 2026' on Polymarket. Analyze the order book depth and spread for top contenders (e.g., Eleni Kounalakis, Antonio Villaraigosa) and potential wildcard heavyweights (e.g., Kamala Harris). Based on the current California political landscape, assess whether current prices accurately reflect early frontrunner advantages or if there are clear arbitrage discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest live data for the 'California Governor Election Winner 2026' on Polymarket. Analyze the order book depth and spread for top contenders (e.g., Eleni Kounalakis, Antonio Villaraigosa) and potential wildcard heavyweights (e.g., Kamala Harris). Based on the current California political landscape, assess whether current prices accurately reflect early frontrunner advantages or if there are clear arbitrage discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the most recent authoritative polls regarding the 2026 California Governor race (e.g., from UC Berkeley IGS or PPIC). Compare these early polling numbers with the current implied probabilities on Polymarket for candidates like Xavier Becerra, Rick Caruso, or Betty Yee to identify the largest divergences between market pricing and actual voter sentiment.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the most recent authoritative polls regarding the 2026 California Governor race (e.g., from UC Berkeley IGS or PPIC). Compare these early polling numbers with the current implied probabilities on Polymarket for candidates like Xavier Becerra, Rick Caruso, or Betty Yee to identify the largest divergences between market pricing and actual voter sentiment.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of capital lock-up. Compare the potential ROI of buying 'Yes' shares on a favorite at current prices against the risk-free compounded return of holding the same amount of USDC in DeFi protocols (assuming ~4-5% APY) until the election. Does the potential payout justify the long-term liquidity illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that this market resolves in November 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of capital lock-up. Compare the potential ROI of buying 'Yes' shares on a favorite at current prices against the risk-free compounded return of holding the same amount of USDC in DeFi protocols (assuming ~4-5% APY) until the election. Does the potential payout justify the long-term liquidity illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

California Governor Election Winner

Elections|$9.2m Vol|

202 days 18 hrs

California Governor Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 14:54

Top Undervalued

+0.8¢

Antonio Villaraigosa(No)

+0.5¢

Matt Mahan(Yes)

+0.4¢

Xavier Becerra(No)

California Governor Election Winner AI analysis: • +0.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Tom Steyer has stabilized around 53c, establishing himself as the absolute frontrunner, largely due ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Antonio Villaraigosa

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Matt Mahan

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

15¢

85¢

+0.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 23 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 13, 2026, Eric Swalwell's price further decayed from 5.45c to 0.35c, confirming market expectations of his campaign suspension or total loss of viability, removing him entirely from the top tier. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, Eric Swalwell's price crashed from 42c to 5.45c, while Tom Steyer's price surged from 25.3c to 51.05c, likely due to market anticipation of Swalwell suspending his campaign or facing a major negative event, causing support to consolidate behind the deep-pocketed self-funder. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, Katie Porter's price jumped from 4.1c to 12.25c, and Matt Mahan's from 6.5c to 14.5c, as they directly benefited from Swalwell's collapse, absorbing capital seeking progressive and establishment alternatives. Apr 9, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, Elaine Culotti's price rebounded from 1.35c to 7.85c, indicating renewed short-term speculative capital on fringe candidates. Apr 7, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, Eric Swalwell's price continued to slide from 46.5c to 41c, reflecting ongoing capital rotation toward alternative Democratic contenders. Apr 6, 2026 - Apr 7, 2026, Tom Steyer's price surged from 12.65c to 26.7c, likely due to market reassessment of his campaign prospects or potential massive self-funding. Apr 5, 2026 - Apr 7, 2026, Eric Swalwell's price plummeted from 62.5c to 46.5c, indicating a shake in market confidence regarding his absolute frontrunner status, with capital possibly shifting to other candidates. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, Matt Mahan's price retraced from 11c down to 6.5c, indicating a cooling of short-term market enthusiasm, and has since stabilized. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, Tom Steyer's price steadily increased from 6.2c to 12.45c, reflecting a market repricing of his potential candidacy. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, Chad Bianco experienced a significant rebound from 2.6c to 6.95c, as capital re-evaluated his position in the GOP primary, before slowly bleeding out. Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Elaine Culotti experienced a typical speculative spike, surging from 0.7c to 12.65c before crashing, and currently sits at low levels with minor fluctuations.