This is a highly specific novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants, the general public rarely cares about, tracks, or predicts the exact range of posts made by the official White House account in a given week.

From April 14, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the prices for '100-119' and '120-139' crashed from around 40c to below 10c, while '180-199' and '200+' surged by more than 15c. This is due to a notable increase in the recent posting activity of the White House X account, causing the market to adjust its expectations for the total post count significantly higher.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from 13c to 24.5c as weather forecast models slightly downgraded expectations closer to resolution. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 21°C option plunged from 33c to 25c, while 22°C dropped from 15.5c to 3.35c, due to high-certainty forecasts ruling out higher temperatures. April 17, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 20°C option surged from 21.5c to 39.5c, and the 21°C option fluctuated between 24c and 33c, as weather forecasts became highly certain that the maximum temperature would likely be between 20°C and 21°C just before settlement. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 22°C option dropped from 22.5c to 11.5c before rebounding back to 22.5c, while the 19°C option fell from 25.5c to 13.5c. This volatility was caused by fine-tuning in weather forecast models as the resolution date approached, leading to shifting market expectations among adjacent temperature ranges. Before April 15, 2026, there is no record of price movements exceeding 10 cents recently.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price of 18°C fluctuated from 32c down to 21.5c before recovering to 24.5c, and the 19°C option dropped from 26c to 13.5c before bouncing to 19c. This was driven by multiple fine-tuning updates in short-range weather models shifting peak temperature probabilities. Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, lower temperature options such as 15°C, 14°C, and 13°C experienced plunges of over 10c (e.g., 15°C fell from 17.5c to 4.75c, 14°C fell from 15.5c to 1.7c). This occurred as the timeline for an incoming cold front became clearer, confirming that the sharp drop in temperatures will not arrive until Sunday, thus securing a warmer forecast for Saturday the 18th.

April 16, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 25.5c to 60.0c, 15°C plummeted from 16.5c to 1.05c, and 19°C dropped from 17.5c to 1.65c. This is because weather forecasting models have become increasingly confident that the high will hit 17°C as the resolution date approaches, eliminating earlier uncertainties regarding lower or higher temperatures.

April 18, 2026 (05:08 to 07:18): The price of the 34°C option surged from 8.5c to 98.8c, while the 33°C option plummeted from 80c to 0.05c. The reason is that real-time temperature observations in Singapore during the afternoon reached the 34°C level, essentially locking in the result. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 34°C option plummeted from 50c to around 11c, while the 32°C option climbed from 20c to 35c, and the 33°C option rose from 20c to 33c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecast models have become more precise for the maximum temperature on the 18th, ruling out the likelihood of an extreme 34°C high and converging expectations toward the typical 32-33°C range.