The definition of 'coup attempt' is strict, requiring an 'attempted execution'. Foiled plots or arrests without execution do not qualify. This creates a grey area, as coups are often secretive; distinguishing between a 'conspiracy without action' and an 'attempt crushed at inception' can be difficult based on limited public information.

Given China's current political stability and centralization of power, publicly discussing or predicting such an event is a low-probability 'black swan' scenario. This falls outside standard geopolitical forecasting, leaning heavily into speculative and fringe territory.

A coup attempt in China would be a geopolitical earthquake of global magnitude. The most direct impact would be on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China-related ETFs (like FXI), which would likely face a panic crash. Global risk-off sentiment would spike, driving up Gold prices. US equities (S&P 500) would likely drop due to uncertainty, and US Treasury yields could see significant volatility from flight-to-safety flows.