Resolution relies on a specific external tool (xtracker), which might have discrepancies in capturing 'replies on the main feed' and 'deleted posts (~5 minute window)' compared to manual observation. If the tracker fails, X itself acts as a backup, introducing risk of inconsistent data sources.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a specific public figure makes during a randomly selected week is a quintessential novelty and entertainment market, which ordinary people would rarely think about or analyze.

April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the '20-39' option surged from 73c to 97.35c, as the approaching resolution deadline practically guaranteed the final count would land in this bucket. April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 40.5c to 93c, while the '<20' and '40-59' options plunged from 29.5c and 27.5c down to single digits (3.5c and 5.75c respectively). This was driven by the passage of time and CZ's actual cumulative tweet count, which exponentially increased the certainty of the final result landing in the 20-39 range, practically eliminating other possibilities. April 21, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the '60-79' option crashed from 48.5c to 2.85c, because the remaining days were insufficient to support extremely high tweet count expectations, bursting the speculative bubble in high-frequency buckets. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the price of the '<20' option surged from 19.5c to 33.5c, likely due to a very low tweet frequency from CZ on that day, leading the market to briefly expect the total might fall below 20. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the '120-139' option spiked from 5.9c to 14.25c; early abnormal movements in high-frequency buckets suggested speculative or indiscriminate buying. April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026, the '80-99' option plunged from 21.5c to 11.5c, indicating some early correction in high-frequency expectations.