The complexity of the rules lies in its reliance on a specific tracker (Polymarket's xtracker) and specific types of tweets. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. Furthermore, deleted tweets count if they survive long enough (~5 mins) to be captured. These technical details could create discrepancies compared to manual observation on X.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a person posts in a week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Typically, the general public or traditional financial markets do not care about such highly specific and random behavioral data.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 320-339 option rose from 27.95c to 41.85c, as continued posting close to settlement made this bracket the most likely final landing spot. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 300-319 option plummeted from 57.9c to 30.5c, as slight shifts in posting speed increased the likelihood of higher brackets, splitting the probabilities. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 340-359 option fell from 26.95c to 8.95c, as the remaining time to achieve this high count dwindled, cooling market expectations. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 300-319 option surged from 21.5c to 52.9c, as with less than a day remaining, the current posting pace indicates this bracket is the most likely final landing spot. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 340-359 option surged from 0.25c to 26.95c before falling back to 17.95c, driven by a massive spike in posting frequency pricing in higher totals, though expectations later converged. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 360-379 option surged from 0.15c to 15.55c before falling to 7.45c, as surging post volumes prompted bets on an extremely high final count, followed by a rational pullback. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 320-339 option surged from 0.65c to 39.5c before settling at 33.05c, as extremely high weekend posting volume made it the most likely landing bracket temporarily before recent data cooled it off. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 280-299 option plummeted from 33.0c to 0.55c (later bouncing to 4.2c), because the overly fast posting pace led actual data to quickly blow past this bracket. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 260-279 option plummeted from 38.5c to 0.05c, for the same reason, as actual posting volume completely surpassed this defensive bracket. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 220-239 option crashed from 29.5c to 2.5c, because recent posting volumes basically guarantee the final count will far exceed this defensive bracket. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 240-259 option surged from 26.5c to 43.5c, because as the tracking period nears its end, Elon's actual posting frequency remained stable, making it highly probable for the final count to fall into this bracket, causing market expectations to heavily concentrate. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 220-239 option rose from 12.5c to 26.5c (later settling around 29.5c), due to a temporary slowdown in posting volume, triggering defensive pricing for a lower final count. April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 260-279 option increased from 17.5c to 28.5c (later settling at 16.5c), because the initial posting speed was fast, aligning highly with this bracket's projection for a time, before slowing down and losing momentum.