Betting on the exact daily high temperature for a specific city (Warsaw) is a standard weather-related topic within prediction markets, yet it remains a highly specific and somewhat niche question that the general public rarely thinks about.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 25.5c to 50.5c, as the resolution date approaches and weather forecasts become more certain, heavily concentrating market expectations on this range. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 19°C option dropped from 26.5c to 15c and then rebounded to 22c, reflecting market fluctuations driven by minor adjustments in weather forecasts.

Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city is a typical weather derivative in prediction markets. However, it lacks broad public attention and represents a relatively niche, data-driven regular market.

April 19, 2026 01:53 - April 19, 2026 08:23, the price of '28°C' surged from 24c to 97.3c, while '29°C' and '30°C' plummeted from 33.5c and 28c to below 3c respectively. This occurred because, as the local time in Chongqing advanced into the late afternoon of April 19, the actual maximum temperature for the day was virtually locked in at 28°C, eliminating the possibility of higher temperatures and causing the market to rapidly converge on the realized outcome. April 18, 2026 06:23 - April 18, 2026 11:48, the price of '31°C or higher' surged from 2.45c to 24.85c, and '30°C' spiked from 16c to a high of 34.5c. This was likely driven by new short-term meteorological data or heatwave warnings, causing investors to drastically raise their expectations for extreme high temperatures tomorrow. April 18, 2026 06:23 - April 18, 2026 11:48, the price of '28°C' plummeted from 31c to 14.5c, and '27°C' crashed from 26.5c to 6.5c. This is because, as expectations for a heatwave solidified, the previously favored lower temperature brackets lost their appeal.

While the general public rarely places precise bets on the specific high temperature of a city on a given day, this is a relatively standard short-term contract in prediction markets and weather derivatives, making its novelty level moderate.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 28°C surged from 24.5c to 45.5c, as weather forecast models became more certain that the high will hit 28°C as the date approaches. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 30°C plummeted from 17c to 4.5c, due to downward revisions in temperature forecasts, significantly lowering the probability of reaching 30°C.

April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 21°C option crashed from 43.5c to 7c, while the 23°C option surged from 10.5c to 36c, and the 24°C option rose from 3.5c to 14.45c. This was due to updated meteorological data closer to the date revising the expected high temperature upwards, shifting the market's focus to the 22°C-23°C range. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 13.5c to 43.5c, while the 22°C option dropped from 31.5c to 11.5c before rebounding to 26.5c. This was driven by weather forecasts converging between 70°F and 72°F as the resolution date approached. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the 20°C option briefly surged from 2c to 22c before crashing to near zero (0.05c), caused by a temporary downward revision in expected temperatures by weather models that was quickly corrected.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche prediction market. While weather forecasting has a dedicated user base on such platforms, the general public does not typically focus on such granular daily details.

Between 04:03 and 06:13 on April 19, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 17.5c to 81.5c, while the 29°C option plummeted from 42c to 17c. This is because as Taipei local time progressed into the afternoon, the actual daily high temperature became clear and locked within the 28°C range. Over the past 3 days, there have been multiple repricings across options due to shifting weather forecasts and the approach of actual observational data, culminating in the final observed value.