Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 28°C option rose from 25c to 38.5c before settling at 34c, driven by increased confidence in weather models for this temperature range. Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 29°C option dropped from a high of 29.5c down to 15.5c, as the latest forecasts adjusted the expected high temperature downwards. Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 30°C option fell from 14.95c to 2.55c, reflecting a significant decrease in the probability of extreme high temperatures.

This is a highly specific novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants, the general public rarely cares about, tracks, or predicts the exact range of posts made by the official White House account in a given week.

From April 14, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the prices for '100-119' and '120-139' crashed from around 40c to below 10c, while '180-199' and '200+' surged by more than 15c. This is due to a notable increase in the recent posting activity of the White House X account, causing the market to adjust its expectations for the total post count significantly higher.

From April 17, 2026, to April 18, 2026, the Yes price of 15°C dropped from 12.45c to 0.85c because meteorological forecasts ruled out lower temperatures as the date approached. From April 17, 2026, to April 18, 2026, the Yes price of 16°C dropped from 21.5c to 6.5c due to short-term weather models converging towards slightly higher temperatures. From April 17, 2026, to April 18, 2026, the Yes price of 17°C rose from 24c to 35.5c as weather forecasts predicted the high temperature would reach or exceed 17°C. From April 17, 2026, to April 18, 2026, the Yes price of 19°C fell from 23.5c to 16c as the likelihood of higher temperatures decreased.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the Yes price for the 25°C option fluctuated from 25c to 34c and then fell back to 27.5c, as short-term updates in weather forecast models caused significant volatility in market expectations for this temperature. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the Yes price for the 24°C option dropped from 29.5c to 17.5c, as meteorological predictions gradually leaned towards higher or lower temperatures (such as 25°C or 23°C), leading to a decrease in the probability of this option.

April 17, 2026 08:33 - April 18, 2026 06:13, the price of the 15°C option climbed from 31.5c to 41c due to minor adjustments in weather forecasts making 15°C the most likely high temperature. April 17, 2026 06:23 - April 17, 2026 10:43, the price of the 17°C option dropped from 19.5c to 9.5c as temperature forecasts were revised downwards, reducing the likelihood of reaching 17°C.