Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price for the 22°C option surged from 20c to 38c, as the approaching date brought more certainty to the weather forecasts indicating a high around 22°C. On April 16, 2026, the 21°C option saw a price increase from 20c to 34c before settling at 29c, reflecting short-term expectation volatility during weather model adjustments.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is somewhat common on prediction markets featuring weather contracts, but a specific day's temperature in Wellington, NZ remains a niche and mildly novelty-driven topic.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 32c to 89.5c, because as the resolution date approaches, the latest weather forecasts clearly indicate that the maximum temperature will hover around 17°C to 18°C, ruling out higher temperatures and prompting a massive concentration of funds into this option. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 19°C plunged from 29.5c to 8.45c, and 20°C dropped from 22c to 1c, because the latest short-term weather forecasts ruled out extreme higher temperature deviations.

Mainstream meteorological services (like MetService) generally forecast a high between 16°C and 17°C, whereas the prediction market concentrates the highest odds on the 18°C option. This divergence may arise because market participants are referencing microclimate data specific to the Wunderground station at the airport (which can run slightly warmer), or because 18°C serves as the floor option covering anything 18°C or below.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the '72°F or higher' option surged from 72c to 95c, while '70-71°F' plummeted from 18c to 2.2c, and '68-69°F' crashed from 18c to 0.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, meteorological forecast models have significantly increased their certainty of an abnormal temperature rise, eliminating the possibility of lower temperature ranges. In previous analysis: No single-day price movement exceeding 10 cents had been observed over the last 3 days.

Betting on daily high temperatures in specific cities is a common fixture in prediction markets, but for the general public, forecasting the exact temperature on a specific day in Ankara, Turkey, remains a relatively niche and specific event.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 14c to 35.5c, while the 16°C option plummeted from 27.5c to 9c. This was caused by the latest weather forecasts slightly lowering the expected high temperature for April 18, shifting the market consensus from the 15-16°C range to the 14-15°C range. Previously, due to the lack of sufficient multi-day historical data, no options had been observed to experience a severe price swing of over 10 cents.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price of the 18°C option plummeted from 22.5c to under 1c, the 19°C option dropped from a peak of 29c to 13.5c, and the 17°C option crashed from 18c to 0.3c. The reason is that as the resolution date nears, the latest meteorological models have ruled out the possibility of a significant cool-down, locking the expected high temperature into the 20°C-21°C range.