Highest temperature in Denver on April 14?
Weather|$62.9k Vol|
time6 hrs 13 mins

Highest temperature in Denver on April 14? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+4¢
66°F or higher(Yes)
+4¢
62-63°F(Yes)
+3.5¢
58-59°F(No)

Highest temperature in Denver on April 14? AI analysis: • +4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current meteorological data (such as NWS and Wunderground) forecasts rain on April 14 for Denver (Bu...
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Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 15?
Weather|$12.7k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
25°C(No)
+5.5¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological sources, the highest temperature for Chengdu Shuangliu Intern...
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Exotics
While weather forecasting is an everyday activity, betting on the exact temperature range of a specific city's weather station on a given day is a relatively niche and novelty topic for the general public.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Denver on April 15?
Weather|$11.8k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Denver on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+24.5¢
70-71°F(Yes)
+21¢
66-67°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest 7-day weather forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) specifically ...
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Divergence
Currently, the '64-65°F' option is leading the market at 22.5c, while '70-71°F' is only priced at 18c. This diverges from the latest explicit NWS forecast, which predicts a high near 70°F. The divergence is likely due to the market lagging behind the latest weather updates or investors factoring in the volatility of high-altitude weather. As time progresses and forecast certainty increases, capital will likely migrate towards the 70-71°F range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 15?
Weather|$10.5k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+9.2¢
21°C or below(No)
+6.5¢
24°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Wuhan (Tianhe International Airpo...
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Exotics
Moderately exotic. While betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche market, weather prediction is a common daily derivative format in prediction markets and is not entirely bizarre.
Divergence
Current meteorological models (such as AccuWeather) forecast a high of around 22°C for April 15. However, the market assigns the highest probability to 23°C (34c) and 24°C (23c). This suggests that traders anticipate the actual recorded temperature will slightly exceed the mainstream forecasted values, creating a moderate divergence.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Weather|$45.9k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+26¢
15°C or higher(No)
+16.4¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15, 2026, is expec...
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Exotics
This is a prediction about the high temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, setting up a specific short-term prediction market for an exact degree in Warsaw is a relatively niche and specific market.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 15?
Weather|$13.9k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
62-63°F(No)
+7.5¢
58-59°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecast data, the maximum temperature at San Francisco Internationa...
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Movers
On April 13, 2026, the price of '56-57°F' dropped from 16.5c to 4.5c. This occurred because, as the date approaches, weather forecast models are trending towards higher temperatures, largely ruling out the lower temperature ranges. On April 13, 2026, the prices for '50-51°F', '52-53°F', and '54-55°F' also saw significant declines, similarly due to short-term forecasts confirming that the temperature will likely be above 55°F.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
66°F or higher
YesNo
96¢
92¢
+4¢
62-63°F
YesNo
29¢
71¢
33¢
67¢
+4¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The title mentions 'Denver', but the rules strictly specify using data from the Buckley Space Force Base Station (located in Aurora). Users relying on generic Denver weather forecasts (which typically use Denver International Airport data) may face discrepancies due to microclimates and station location differences if they ignore the specific Wunderground link.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 58-59°F option plunged from 29c to 8c, because the latest weather forecasts slightly raised the expected high temperature, indicating the cooling effect from rain would be less severe than anticipated, causing capital to shift towards the 62-63°F range. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 58-59°F option surged from 12c to 27.5c, as updated forecasts confirmed the cooling effect of expected precipitation, lowering the projected high temperature. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 66°F or higher option plunged from 39c to 5.5c, because short-term weather forecasts explicitly ruled out the possibility of extreme heat on April 14. April 12, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 60-61°F option surged from 13c to 24.5c, while the 64-65°F option plunged from 26.5c to 16c. This occurred because meteorological platforms like Wunderground updated their forecasts, revising the expected high temperature down to around 60°F.

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