Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city that is not a major global economic hub is a typical niche weather market. Unless one is a local resident or a weather/energy derivative trader, the general public wouldn't naturally ponder this question, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The price of '12°C' plummeted from 33.5c to 7.75c, '15°C or higher' spiked from 29c to 54.5c before dropping to 22.5c, and '14°C' climbed from 28c to 44.5c. This occurred because, as the target date approaches, weather models have become more confident in a warmer peak temperature, effectively ruling out cooler scenarios. Prior to April 12, 2026: Several options including '8°C', '9°C', and '10°C' experienced price crashes of over 10c (e.g., 8°C plummeted from 25c to 2c, 10°C from 25c to 12.5c). This correction occurred because weather forecasts converged on warmer expected temperatures (12°C-15°C), prompting the market to heavily discount the probability of cooler outcomes.