Predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific location and date is a relatively niche weather market. While people frequently check the weather, precisely pricing single-day temperature peaks on prediction markets is not mainstream.

From April 16 to April 17, 2026, the price of 32°C surged from 38.5c to 99.35c, and the price of 33°C plummeted from 35.5c to 0.35c. This is because it is already late afternoon in Kuala Lumpur, and the actual high temperature has been locked in at 32°C, removing all market uncertainty. From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of 33°C surged from 13c to 35.5c, as nearing weather forecasts increasingly solidified the probability of the high temperature landing around 33°C. From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of 32°C surged from 24c to 39c, as forecasts clustered the high temperatures in the 32-33°C range. From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of 30°C plummeted from 21c to 5.5c, as updated short-term forecasts largely ruled out the possibility of the high being only 30°C.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is somewhat common on prediction markets featuring weather contracts, but a specific day's temperature in Wellington, NZ remains a niche and mildly novelty-driven topic.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 15°C plunged from 19.5c to 1.75c, 16°C crashed from 22c to 6.55c, and 19°C dropped from 27c to 13c, because the latest short-term weather forecasts ruled out extreme temperature deviations and provided high confidence that the high will fall in the 17°C to 18°C range.

There is a massive contradiction between the title, the options, and the rules. The title is 'Fed rate cut by...?', but the options list 'June Meeting', 'March Meeting', 'April Meeting', which implies a multiple-choice structure. However, the rule text explicitly describes a binary 'Yes/No' condition based on a rate cut occurring specifically between Dec 16, 2025, and the Jan 2026 meeting. This mismatch creates extreme resolution risk: users might bet on 'June Meeting' thinking it refers to a specific timing, while the underlying rules dictate a binary outcome based on January activity. This is a structurally broken event.

Fed rate decisions directly impact global asset pricing. If the market anticipates a rate cut in January 2026 (as defined by the rules), this would exert direct downward pressure on US Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield), typically boosting equities (S&P 500) and weighing on the Dollar Index (DXY). While this is a prediction for a specific meeting, an unexpected outcome (e.g., a surprise cut amidst inflation or a refusal to cut during a downturn) would cause medium-level swing impacts (Score 3). Gold and Bitcoin would also be affected by changes in liquidity expectations.

Apr 14, 2026 - Apr 17, 2026, September Meeting price surged from 37.15c to 51.45c, driven by further consolidation of September rate cut expectations as the market digested the latest economic data. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 13, 2026, October Meeting price plummeted from 69.2c to 51.75c, July Meeting dropped from 33.5c to 22c, and September Meeting fell from 47.95c to 36.55c, driven by the market further digesting persistently high inflation data, causing expectations for rate cuts this year (especially in Q3 and Q4) to continue cooling significantly. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 12, 2026, October Meeting price plummeted from 69.2c to 56.65c, July Meeting dropped from 33.5c to 22c, and September Meeting fell from 47.95c to 37.15c, driven by the market further digesting persistently high inflation data, causing expectations for rate cuts this year (especially in Q3 and Q4) to continue cooling significantly. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, October Meeting price plummeted from 69.2c to 54.5c, and July Meeting dropped from 33.5c to 22c, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data severely crushing optimistic expectations for rate cuts this year. Apr 7, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, July Meeting price surged from 22.5c to 33.5c, and October Meeting price rose from 54.95c to 73.6c before settling at 69.2c, driven by a repricing of expectations for H2 (especially summer and Q4) rate cuts as the market digested new economic data. Apr 6, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, October Meeting price surged from 54.9c to 73.6c, driven by a massive repricing and consolidation of expectations for a Q4 (October) rate cut as the market digested the latest economic data. Apr 5, 2026 - Apr 8, 2026, October Meeting price surged from 54.85c to 73.6c, driven by a massive repricing and consolidation of expectations for a Q4 (October) rate cut as the market digested the latest economic data. Apr 1, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026, September Meeting price surged from 36.05c to 48.7c, driven by further consolidation of September rate cut expectations as the market digested the latest economic data. Mar 30, 2026 - Apr 2, 2026, September Meeting price surged from 38.05c to 45.15c, driven by rising expectations for a September rate cut as the market weighed new economic data. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, July Meeting price crashed from 43.5c to 25.5c, driven by cooling expectations for summer rate cuts and sentiment returning to rationality after short-term speculation. Mar 26, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, July Meeting price surged from 27c to 43.5c before rapidly falling back to 29c, driven by extreme short-term speculation on summer rate cut expectations. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, July Meeting price surged from 24.5c to 43.5c, likely due to market repricing of summer rate cut expectations, with capital inflows driving up the probability. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, December Meeting price rebounded from 55.5c to 66.5c, while September Meeting surged from 38.7c to 49.8c before retreating to ~41.5c. The reason is sentiment recovery after short-term panic selling, with capital repricing H2 rate cut expectations amid a fierce tug-of-war between dip buyers and profit takers. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, September Meeting price surged from 35.55c to 49.8c before settling at 42.75c, and December Meeting dropped from 65c to 55.5c then rebounded to 67c. The reason is sentiment recovery after digesting short-term macro data, with heavy tug-of-war between panic selling and dip buying. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, December Meeting price rebounded from 55.5c to 64.5c (+9c), and October Meeting rose from 35.5c to 47.2c (+11.7c). The reason is a market correction after the short-term 'stagflation panic' and overselling, with capital re-entering to bet on year-end cuts, fixing the excessive pessimism. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, October Meeting price crashed from 53.6c to 35.5c (-18.1c), and December Meeting fell from 68.5c to 55.5c. The reason was the confirmation that H1 cuts were off the table, spreading panic to Q4 and causing a liquidity stampede.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 18°C steadily climbed from 31.5c to 53.5c, while the price of 17°C dropped significantly from 44.5c to 24.5c. This occurred because, as time progressed, the latest high-resolution weather models further anchored the expected peak temperature at 18°C, reducing the likelihood of a cooler peak. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 16°C plummeted from 13.2c to 1.5c, as morning real-time temperatures and short-term forecasts definitively ruled out the scenario where the high would only reach 16°C.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature in a specific city on a given day is a highly niche weather derivatives market. Unless someone is a local resident or a specialized weather trader, the general public would not naturally consider or care about this question, making it quite a novelty.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 40°C surged from 20.5c to 49.5c as weather forecasts stabilized, confirming the high would be near 104°F (40°C). April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 42°C plummeted from 26c to 2c as new data ruled out the likelihood of reaching this extreme heat. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 39°C fluctuated significantly between 11.5c and 32c, reflecting shifting market expectations on whether the temperature might fall slightly short of 40°C.