Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 19?
Weather|$274.0k Vol|
time0 s

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 19? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 4 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+0.4¢
30°C(No)
+0.3¢
29°C(No)
+0.2¢
31°C or higher(No)

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 19? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing, the probability of the 30°C option has surged to 99.5%. The curr...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Politics|$102.0k Vol|
time197 days 10 hrs

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+13.5¢
Republican(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
26¢
Arbitrage
66.2%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on Republican (69c) and Yes on Democrat (4.45c) simultaneously. Total cost is 73.45c. As long as the winner is either a Republican or a Democrat, it pays out 100c, netting 26.55c. Plan Description: This is a classic 'Soft Arbitrage' opportunity. Market pricing implies an independent candidate has ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Nebraska is a traditional deep-red state with an overwhelming Republican fundamental advantage. The ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between prediction markets and mainstream political consensus. Major rating agencies (like Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball) universally rate the Nebraska Senate race as 'Solid Republican,' implying a GOP win probability of 90% or higher. However, Polymarket currently prices the Republican at only 69%, exaggerating the actual chances of an independent candidate in a deep-red state. This divergence typically stems from retail bettors overreacting to early polling or media hype.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and order book depth for the Nebraska Senate Election on Polymarket. Confirm if the incumbent Republican (likely Pete Ricketts) is running for re-election, check for any declared competitive Independent candidates (similar to the 2024 Dan Osborn scenario) or Democratic challengers, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the "safe seat" status versus the risk of a third-party upset.
Ostium FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$67.8k Vol|
time256 days 15 hrs

Ostium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued
+4.8¢
$4B(No)
+4.5¢
$1B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The prediction market suffers from extreme illiquidity, exhibiting obvious pricing inversions (e.g.,...
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Rule Risk
The rules clearly define FDV calculation (Total Supply * Price) and timing (4 PM ET the day after launch). The main risk lies in the definition of 'Launch': 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable.' Ambiguity may arise regarding whether pre-market futures count or only formal DEX/CEX listings. Additionally, if no token is launched by the deadline (end of 2026), the market resolves to 'No', introducing significant time uncertainty risk.
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Politics|$24.2k Vol|
time71 days 10 hrs

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.6¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
There are no active bills in any US state legislature that meet the market's criteria for state sece...
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Exotics
This is an extreme political tail-risk event. While topics like 'Texit' are discussed in certain political circles, the likelihood of a genuine full floor vote in a state legislature is historically very low in the modern era. It qualifies as a political spectacle and is a highly unconventional prediction.
Hedging
DXY
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
If any state legislature actually holds a full floor vote on this, even if the measure is doomed to fail, it would be viewed as a major escalation in US political polarization and instability. Such 'constitutional crisis' level news could trigger market concerns about long-term US stability, causing short-term shocks to the Dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields, and depressing risk appetite in equities.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates from key states like Texas (TEXIT) and New Hampshire, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for 'Yes' and 'No', and update the fair value and risk assessment considering the remaining 2026 legislative session window (March-June).
Highest temperature in Munich on April 20?
Weather|$18.3k Vol|
time22 hrs 43 mins

Highest temperature in Munich on April 20?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
15°C(No)
+3.5¢
13°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest prediction market trends, the 'Yes' price for 14°C has risen to 0.405, and 13°C ...
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a common niche within prediction markets. While betting on the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is not extremely absurd, it is rarely pondered by the general public unless they are local residents or specific traders, making it somewhat of an edge topic.
Movers
April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 19c to 40.5c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the target date showed a high probability of reaching 14°C. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 12°C option dropped from 25c to 8.5c, as the latest forecasts ruled out the possibility of the temperature only reaching 12°C.
AI Analysis
How does Wunderground finalize the highest temperature data for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM), and what are the exact resolution rules regarding decimal precision and Fahrenheit/Celsius conversions?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 20?
Weather|$25.0k Vol|
time22 hrs 43 mins

Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 20?

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
44°C(No)
+0.9¢
39°C or below(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 24 hours remaining until settlement, short-term weather forecasts are highly accurate...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Weather prediction markets are a standard category on prediction platforms; however, forecasting the exact highest temperature in a specific Indian city on a given day remains a relatively niche and specific question for the general public.
Movers
April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of 41°C surged from 36.5c to 58c, while 40°C plummeted from 22.5c to 7.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, the latest 24-hour precision weather forecasts further ruled out lower temperature possibilities, locking the expected high closely around 41°C.
AI Analysis
How will the highest temperature for Lucknow on April 20 be officially read and resolved according to the Wunderground data rules (e.g., Celsius rounding)?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
30°C
YesNo
99.4¢
0.6¢
99¢
1¢
0¢
+0.4¢
29°C
YesNo
0.3¢
99.7¢
0¢
100¢
0¢
+0.3¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 19, 2026 01:00 - April 19, 2026 08:00, the price of the 30°C option surged from 17.5c to 99.5c, and the 29°C option plummeted from 57.5c to 0.2c. The reason is that as Hong Kong local time entered the afternoon of April 19, real-time observation data showed the maximum temperature had reached the 30°C range, causing funds to rapidly converge on the certain outcome. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 28°C option dropped from 31.5c to 23c, the 29°C option rose from 42c to 52.5c, and the 30°C option fell from 21.5c to 17.5c. The reason is that as April 19 arrived, real-time temperature observation data further clarified that the maximum temperature was more likely to reach 29°C, leading funds to concentrate on the 29°C option initially. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the 28°C option rose from 23.5c to a peak of 40.5c, and the 29°C option rose from 35c to 46.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, weather forecasts further confirmed that the maximum temperature would likely fall between 28°C and 29°C, ruling out more extreme variations and causing funds to concentrate on these two most probable outcomes.

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