Highest temperature in Houston on April 18? - AI Mispricing Alert

Weather|$19.9k Vol|

18 hrs 7 mins

Highest temperature in Houston on April 18? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+7.5¢

82-83°F(Yes)

+1.1¢

78-79°F(No)

+1¢

80-81°F(No)

Highest temperature in Houston on April 18? AI analysis: • +7.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than a day left until resolution, forecasts indicate the high temperature in Houston on Ap...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Economy|$3.7m Vol|

Fed Decision in July?

Top Undervalued

25 bps decrease(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market pricing shows the probability of holding rates steady in July remains stable around 7...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Fed's interest rate decision directly dictates the cost of capital, profoundly impacting all major asset classes. An unexpected resolution (e.g., a surprise cut or hike) would trigger immediate volatility in US Treasury yields, subsequently driving repricing in the Dollar Index (DXY), Gold, and equities (S&P 500). Given the timeline (July 2026), the market sensitivity to policy shifts at that economic juncture is likely high.

Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Fed Decision in July?' market on Polymarket. Given the extremely low volume ($2.48), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to identify potential liquidity traps, and combined with the current baseline Federal Funds Rate, assess if the current odds are severely disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals.

Culture|$1.4m Vol|

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Dune: Messiah(No)

Avengers: Doomsday(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

'Avengers: Doomsday' practically locks in the biggest opening weekend of 2026, driven by Robert Down...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event serves as a fundamental catalyst for media stocks. Disney (DIS) holds the most contenders (Avengers, Toy Story, Star Wars), and its stock is highly sensitive to studio performance, particularly the recovery of the Marvel franchise. A record-breaking opening for 'Avengers: Doomsday' would act as a bullish driver for DIS, while a flop would be bearish. Warner Bros. (WBD) and Sony (SONY) are similarly exposed via their respective intellectual properties.

Sports|$4.1m Vol|

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

Top Undervalued

Grigor Dimitrov(Yes)

Carlos Alcaraz(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to reflect a duopoly of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, whose combined fair v...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth and bid-ask spreads for top contenders (e.g., Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic), and update the fair value assessment based on current ATP rankings and recent injury news.

Sports|$2.3m Vol|

2026 Women's French Open Winner

Top Undervalued

Iga Świątek(Yes)

Belinda Bencic(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Iga Świątek, as the undisputed Queen of Clay, is still significantly undervalued at 28¢; her fair va...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The market is currently pricing Iga Świątek at only 28%, which diverges significantly from the consensus of mainstream tennis experts and data models. Given her historical dominance at Roland Garros, mainstream consensus typically places her probability of winning at 40% or higher. The market may be over-indexing on recent non-clay results or potential minor injury risks.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the '2026 Women's French Open Winner' to analyze the order book depth, specifically checking if the current volume (~$27k) supports significant entries without major slippage, and reassess the bid-ask spreads of clay-court favorites like Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka against their recent form.

Sports|$2.0m Vol|

NHL: Eastern Conference Champion

Top Undervalued

Philadelphia Flyers(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all 8 teams Plan Description: The sum of all Yes prices is currently 98.75 cents. Buying a Yes share for every option costs less t...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current sum of Yes prices for all options is approximately 98.75%, indicating a slight discount....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Mean Reversion: Search for the latest '2025-26 NHL Eastern Conference Winner' futures odds on major platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Calculate the deviation between Polymarket's implied probabilities for top teams and the efficient lines set by traditional bookmakers. If Polymarket prices are significantly lower than the institutional consensus (indicating positive EV), calculate the potential Return on Investment (ROI) from a mean reversion strategy.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest NHL Eastern Conference standings as of March 1, 2026, analyzing the recent win rates and injury status of top contenders like the Florida Panthers and NY Rangers. Compare the current Polymarket order book depth and price distribution against these fundamentals to assess if the odds accurately reflect the probability of clinching the #1 seed, or if there is mispricing driven by fan sentiment.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Playoff Bracket & Matchup Projection: Based on the standings as of March 1, 2026, project the potential Round 1 matchups for the upcoming playoffs. Analyze which favorites (e.g., Maple Leafs or Bruins) are likely to fall into a 'bracket of death' or face elite opponents early, and determine if the current market prices have fully priced in this risk of early elimination due to unfavorable seeding.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Mean Reversion: Search for the latest '2025-26 NHL Eastern Conference Winner' futures odds on major platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Calculate the deviation between Polymarket's implied probabilities for top teams and the efficient lines set by traditional bookmakers. If Polymarket prices are significantly lower than the institutional consensus (indicating positive EV), calculate the potential Return on Investment (ROI) from a mean reversion strategy.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest NHL Eastern Conference standings as of March 1, 2026, analyzing the recent win rates and injury status of top contenders like the Florida Panthers and NY Rangers. Compare the current Polymarket order book depth and price distribution against these fundamentals to assess if the odds accurately reflect the probability of clinching the #1 seed, or if there is mispricing driven by fan sentiment.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

82-83°F

YesNo

27.5¢

72.5¢

35¢

65¢

+7.5¢

0¢

78-79°F

YesNo

3.1¢

96.9¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+1.1¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of '84°F or higher' surged from 27.5c to a peak of 62.5c before settling at 46c, due to short-term meteorological models adjusting high-temperature expectations and increased volatility nearing expiration. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of '80-81°F' spiked from 9c to 29c, reflecting adjustments in probability distribution based on cooling trends in some forecasts. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: Lower temperature options like '72-73°F', '74-75°F', '76-77°F', and '78-79°F' experienced significant drops to below 10c, as forecasts essentially confirmed that the daily high will exceed 80°F.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Economy|$3.7m Vol|

Fed Decision in July?

Top Undervalued

25 bps decrease(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market pricing shows the probability of holding rates steady in July remains stable around 7...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Fed's interest rate decision directly dictates the cost of capital, profoundly impacting all major asset classes. An unexpected resolution (e.g., a surprise cut or hike) would trigger immediate volatility in US Treasury yields, subsequently driving repricing in the Dollar Index (DXY), Gold, and equities (S&P 500). Given the timeline (July 2026), the market sensitivity to policy shifts at that economic juncture is likely high.

Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Fed Decision in July?' market on Polymarket. Given the extremely low volume ($2.48), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to identify potential liquidity traps, and combined with the current baseline Federal Funds Rate, assess if the current odds are severely disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals.

Culture|$1.4m Vol|

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Dune: Messiah(No)

Avengers: Doomsday(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

'Avengers: Doomsday' practically locks in the biggest opening weekend of 2026, driven by Robert Down...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event serves as a fundamental catalyst for media stocks. Disney (DIS) holds the most contenders (Avengers, Toy Story, Star Wars), and its stock is highly sensitive to studio performance, particularly the recovery of the Marvel franchise. A record-breaking opening for 'Avengers: Doomsday' would act as a bullish driver for DIS, while a flop would be bearish. Warner Bros. (WBD) and Sony (SONY) are similarly exposed via their respective intellectual properties.

Sports|$4.1m Vol|

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

Top Undervalued

Grigor Dimitrov(Yes)

Carlos Alcaraz(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to reflect a duopoly of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, whose combined fair v...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth and bid-ask spreads for top contenders (e.g., Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic), and update the fair value assessment based on current ATP rankings and recent injury news.

Sports|$2.3m Vol|

2026 Women's French Open Winner

Top Undervalued

Iga Świątek(Yes)

Belinda Bencic(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Iga Świątek, as the undisputed Queen of Clay, is still significantly undervalued at 28¢; her fair va...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The market is currently pricing Iga Świątek at only 28%, which diverges significantly from the consensus of mainstream tennis experts and data models. Given her historical dominance at Roland Garros, mainstream consensus typically places her probability of winning at 40% or higher. The market may be over-indexing on recent non-clay results or potential minor injury risks.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the '2026 Women's French Open Winner' to analyze the order book depth, specifically checking if the current volume (~$27k) supports significant entries without major slippage, and reassess the bid-ask spreads of clay-court favorites like Iga Świątek and Aryna Sabalenka against their recent form.

Sports|$2.0m Vol|

NHL: Eastern Conference Champion

Top Undervalued

Philadelphia Flyers(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all 8 teams Plan Description: The sum of all Yes prices is currently 98.75 cents. Buying a Yes share for every option costs less t...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current sum of Yes prices for all options is approximately 98.75%, indicating a slight discount....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Mean Reversion: Search for the latest '2025-26 NHL Eastern Conference Winner' futures odds on major platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Calculate the deviation between Polymarket's implied probabilities for top teams and the efficient lines set by traditional bookmakers. If Polymarket prices are significantly lower than the institutional consensus (indicating positive EV), calculate the potential Return on Investment (ROI) from a mean reversion strategy.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest NHL Eastern Conference standings as of March 1, 2026, analyzing the recent win rates and injury status of top contenders like the Florida Panthers and NY Rangers. Compare the current Polymarket order book depth and price distribution against these fundamentals to assess if the odds accurately reflect the probability of clinching the #1 seed, or if there is mispricing driven by fan sentiment.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Playoff Bracket & Matchup Projection: Based on the standings as of March 1, 2026, project the potential Round 1 matchups for the upcoming playoffs. Analyze which favorites (e.g., Maple Leafs or Bruins) are likely to fall into a 'bracket of death' or face elite opponents early, and determine if the current market prices have fully priced in this risk of early elimination due to unfavorable seeding.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Mean Reversion: Search for the latest '2025-26 NHL Eastern Conference Winner' futures odds on major platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Calculate the deviation between Polymarket's implied probabilities for top teams and the efficient lines set by traditional bookmakers. If Polymarket prices are significantly lower than the institutional consensus (indicating positive EV), calculate the potential Return on Investment (ROI) from a mean reversion strategy.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest NHL Eastern Conference standings as of March 1, 2026, analyzing the recent win rates and injury status of top contenders like the Florida Panthers and NY Rangers. Compare the current Polymarket order book depth and price distribution against these fundamentals to assess if the odds accurately reflect the probability of clinching the #1 seed, or if there is mispricing driven by fan sentiment.

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