April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the Yes price for the 25°C option fluctuated from 25c to 34c and then fell back to 27.5c, as short-term updates in weather forecast models caused significant volatility in market expectations for this temperature. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the Yes price for the 24°C option dropped from 29.5c to 17.5c, as meteorological predictions gradually leaned towards higher or lower temperatures (such as 25°C or 23°C), leading to a decrease in the probability of this option.

From April 17, 2026, to April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 16°C plummeted from 21.5c to 2.05c, as weather forecasts largely ruled out the possibility of colder temperatures closer to the date. From April 17, 2026, to April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 17°C surged from 24c to 37.5c (peaking at 47.5c) because most weather forecasts predicted the high temperature would reach or exceed 17°C. From April 17, 2026, to April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 18°C surged from 21.5c to 38.5c, as the official resolution source (Wunderground) forecasted a high of 65°F (approx. 18°C), making it the top contender.

Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 28°C option rose from 25c to 38.5c before settling at 34c, driven by increased confidence in weather models for this temperature range. Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 29°C option dropped from a high of 29.5c down to 15.5c, as the latest forecasts adjusted the expected high temperature downwards. Between April 17, 2026, and April 18, 2026, the price of the 30°C option fell from 14.95c to 2.55c, reflecting a significant decrease in the probability of extreme high temperatures.

April 17, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 16°C option climbed from 31.5c to 48.5c as the settlement date approached and weather forecasts confirmed it as the most likely high temperature. April 17, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 15°C option rose from 18.0c to 37.5c due to meteorological model adjustments making 15°C another highly probable range. April 17, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of the 14°C option plummeted from 16.0c to 2.4c as forecasted temperatures increased, drastically reducing the likelihood of the high remaining at just 14°C.

This is a highly specific novelty market. Outside of prediction market participants, the general public rarely cares about, tracks, or predicts the exact range of posts made by the official White House account in a given week.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 20.5c to over 36c, because after the actual first-day posting data was observed, the market deduced that the final total is most likely to fall in this range at the current pace. April 14, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices for '100-119' and '120-139' crashed from around 40c to below 10c, while '180-199' and '200+' surged by more than 15c. This is due to a notable increase in the recent posting activity of the White House X account, causing the market to adjust its expectations for the total post count significantly higher.