Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 20? - AI Mispricing Alert

Weather|$39.0k Vol|

0 s

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 20? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.19 16:02

Top Undervalued

+18.5¢

66-67°F(No)

+13¢

70-71°F(Yes)

+6.7¢

64-65°F(Yes)

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 20? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market dynamics and short-term meteorological forecast models (like NWS point fo...

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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.5k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) ...

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April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 22°C option surged from 25.5c to 45c, and the 23°C option surged from 22c to 37.5c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 7c. This occurred because as the date approached, meteorological models provided more precise temperature forecasts, eliminating the likelihood of lower temperatures and locking expectations in the 22°C to 23°C range.

Based on historical weather data, what is the frequency of the highest temperature at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport falling into these specific Celsius ranges (e.g., 26°C or higher) on April 21 over the past decade?

Politics|$102.3k Vol|

196 days 10 hrs

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on Republican (69c) and Yes on Democrat (4.45c) simultaneously. Total cost is 73.45c. As long as the winner is either a Republican or a Democrat, it pays out 100c, netting 26.55c. Plan Description: This is a classic 'Soft Arbitrage' opportunity. Market pricing implies an independent candidate has ...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Nebraska is a traditional deep-red state with an overwhelming Republican fundamental advantage. The ...

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There is a significant divergence between prediction markets and mainstream political consensus. Major rating agencies (like Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball) universally rate the Nebraska Senate race as 'Solid Republican,' implying a GOP win probability of 90% or higher. However, Polymarket currently prices the Republican at only 69%, exaggerating the actual chances of an independent candidate in a deep-red state. This divergence typically stems from retail bettors overreacting to early polling or media hype.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Efficiency & APY Analysis: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of buying the "Republican" outcome at current prices. Compare this against risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively analyze whether the return justifies the 8-month capital lock-up compared to passive income alternatives.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and order book depth for the Nebraska Senate Election on Polymarket. Confirm if the incumbent Republican (likely Pete Ricketts) is running for re-election, check for any declared competitive Independent candidates (similar to the 2024 Dan Osborn scenario) or Democratic challengers, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the "safe seat" status versus the risk of a third-party upset.

[Rule Pitfall] Independent Candidate Trap & Historical Precedents: Focusing on the critical rule that "Independent candidates will not be encompassed by Democrat or Republican options," review the competitive 2024 Nebraska race featuring Independent Dan Osborn. Search for rumors of similar strong Independent bids for 2026, and explain to users why a "Republican" bet resolves to "Loss" if an Independent wins, clarifying that the risk exposure extends beyond just the Democratic challenger.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Efficiency & APY Analysis: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of buying the "Republican" outcome at current prices. Compare this against risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively analyze whether the return justifies the 8-month capital lock-up compared to passive income alternatives.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and order book depth for the Nebraska Senate Election on Polymarket. Confirm if the incumbent Republican (likely Pete Ricketts) is running for re-election, check for any declared competitive Independent candidates (similar to the 2024 Dan Osborn scenario) or Democratic challengers, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the "safe seat" status versus the risk of a third-party upset.

Crypto|$67.9k Vol|

255 days 15 hrs

Ostium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The prediction market suffers from extreme illiquidity, exhibiting obvious pricing inversions (e.g.,...

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The rules clearly define FDV calculation (Total Supply * Price) and timing (4 PM ET the day after launch). The main risk lies in the definition of 'Launch': 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable.' Ambiguity may arise regarding whether pre-market futures count or only formal DEX/CEX listings. Additionally, if no token is launched by the deadline (end of 2026), the market resolves to 'No', introducing significant time uncertainty risk.

Weather|$59.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Weather forecasts for Wellington on April 21 indicate a high temperature most likely between 11°C an...

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Weather forecasting is a niche but established category in prediction markets (e.g., widely seen on Kalshi). While the general public rarely bets on the specific daily high temperature of a single city, it is a common data-driven market for weather enthusiasts and quantitative traders, making its novelty level moderate.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The Yes price for 12°C increased from 29c to 56.5c, as updated weather forecasts increasingly confirmed a maximum temperature of 12°C for the day. Meanwhile, the Yes price for 11°C also rose from 14.5c to 30.5c. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The Yes price for 13°C dropped from 30c to 12.5c, reflecting a decreased likelihood of higher temperatures.

Explain the resolution rules for this market like I'm 5: How exactly is the highest temperature in Wellington on April 21 determined using Wunderground data, and why do later weather revisions not count?

Weather|$10.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Denver on April 22?

Top Undervalued

64°F or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Denver (Buckley Space Force Base...

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The title mentions 'Denver,' but the rules strictly specify using data from the Buckley Space Force Base (KBKF) in Aurora. Temperature variations between Denver proper (or its main airport) and this specific base could mislead traders who only read the title.

Explain like I'm 5: How exactly is the market for Denver's highest temperature on April 22 resolved using the Wunderground data for the Buckley Space Force Base?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

66-67°F

YesNo

43.5¢

56.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+18.5¢

70-71°F

YesNo

9¢

91¢

22¢

78¢

+13¢

0¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of '68-69°F' surged from 14c to 37.5c, as short-term weather forecasting models confirmed this range as the focal point for the daily high. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of '72-73°F' plummeted from 22c down to 5c, because approaching weather data significantly ruled out the chances of anomalous warming. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of '74°F or higher' dropped from 16.5c to 3c, similarly driven by high-resolution forecasts eliminating the possibility of an extreme heat wave.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$16.5k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) ...

🔓 Log in to see more

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 22°C option surged from 25.5c to 45c, and the 23°C option surged from 22c to 37.5c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 7c. This occurred because as the date approached, meteorological models provided more precise temperature forecasts, eliminating the likelihood of lower temperatures and locking expectations in the 22°C to 23°C range.

Based on historical weather data, what is the frequency of the highest temperature at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport falling into these specific Celsius ranges (e.g., 26°C or higher) on April 21 over the past decade?

Politics|$102.3k Vol|

196 days 10 hrs

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on Republican (69c) and Yes on Democrat (4.45c) simultaneously. Total cost is 73.45c. As long as the winner is either a Republican or a Democrat, it pays out 100c, netting 26.55c. Plan Description: This is a classic 'Soft Arbitrage' opportunity. Market pricing implies an independent candidate has ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

Nebraska is a traditional deep-red state with an overwhelming Republican fundamental advantage. The ...

🔓 Log in to see more

There is a significant divergence between prediction markets and mainstream political consensus. Major rating agencies (like Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball) universally rate the Nebraska Senate race as 'Solid Republican,' implying a GOP win probability of 90% or higher. However, Polymarket currently prices the Republican at only 69%, exaggerating the actual chances of an independent candidate in a deep-red state. This divergence typically stems from retail bettors overreacting to early polling or media hype.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Efficiency & APY Analysis: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of buying the "Republican" outcome at current prices. Compare this against risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively analyze whether the return justifies the 8-month capital lock-up compared to passive income alternatives.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and order book depth for the Nebraska Senate Election on Polymarket. Confirm if the incumbent Republican (likely Pete Ricketts) is running for re-election, check for any declared competitive Independent candidates (similar to the 2024 Dan Osborn scenario) or Democratic challengers, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the "safe seat" status versus the risk of a third-party upset.

[Rule Pitfall] Independent Candidate Trap & Historical Precedents: Focusing on the critical rule that "Independent candidates will not be encompassed by Democrat or Republican options," review the competitive 2024 Nebraska race featuring Independent Dan Osborn. Search for rumors of similar strong Independent bids for 2026, and explain to users why a "Republican" bet resolves to "Loss" if an Independent wins, clarifying that the risk exposure extends beyond just the Democratic challenger.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Efficiency & APY Analysis: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of buying the "Republican" outcome at current prices. Compare this against risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields to quantitatively analyze whether the return justifies the 8-month capital lock-up compared to passive income alternatives.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and order book depth for the Nebraska Senate Election on Polymarket. Confirm if the incumbent Republican (likely Pete Ricketts) is running for re-election, check for any declared competitive Independent candidates (similar to the 2024 Dan Osborn scenario) or Democratic challengers, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the "safe seat" status versus the risk of a third-party upset.

Crypto|$67.9k Vol|

255 days 15 hrs

Ostium FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The prediction market suffers from extreme illiquidity, exhibiting obvious pricing inversions (e.g.,...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules clearly define FDV calculation (Total Supply * Price) and timing (4 PM ET the day after launch). The main risk lies in the definition of 'Launch': 'actively, publicly transferable and tradable.' Ambiguity may arise regarding whether pre-market futures count or only formal DEX/CEX listings. Additionally, if no token is launched by the deadline (end of 2026), the market resolves to 'No', introducing significant time uncertainty risk.

Weather|$59.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Wellington on April 21?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Weather forecasts for Wellington on April 21 indicate a high temperature most likely between 11°C an...

🔓 Log in to see more

Weather forecasting is a niche but established category in prediction markets (e.g., widely seen on Kalshi). While the general public rarely bets on the specific daily high temperature of a single city, it is a common data-driven market for weather enthusiasts and quantitative traders, making its novelty level moderate.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The Yes price for 12°C increased from 29c to 56.5c, as updated weather forecasts increasingly confirmed a maximum temperature of 12°C for the day. Meanwhile, the Yes price for 11°C also rose from 14.5c to 30.5c. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The Yes price for 13°C dropped from 30c to 12.5c, reflecting a decreased likelihood of higher temperatures.

Explain the resolution rules for this market like I'm 5: How exactly is the highest temperature in Wellington on April 21 determined using Wunderground data, and why do later weather revisions not count?

Weather|$10.6k Vol|

Highest temperature in Denver on April 22?

Top Undervalued

64°F or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Denver (Buckley Space Force Base...

🔓 Log in to see more

The title mentions 'Denver,' but the rules strictly specify using data from the Buckley Space Force Base (KBKF) in Aurora. Temperature variations between Denver proper (or its main airport) and this specific base could mislead traders who only read the title.

Explain like I'm 5: How exactly is the market for Denver's highest temperature on April 22 resolved using the Wunderground data for the Buckley Space Force Base?

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