Highest temperature in Seattle on April 11?
Weather|$73.3k Vol|
time0 s

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 11? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.11 08:09
Top Undervalued
+29.2¢
53°F or below(Yes)
+26¢
56-57°F(No)
+2.8¢
58-59°F(No)

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 11? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground and NWS forecasts, Seattle will experience steady rain on April...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?
Weather|$23.8k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+60¢
35°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data, the prices for 34°C and 35°C or higher have increased, reflecting ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a standard template in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature for a specific city in Pakistan remains a relatively niche topic that falls outside mainstream public interest.
Movers
Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '35°C or higher' rose from 26c to 50c, as approaching settlement times and weather forecasts indicated a higher likelihood of extreme temperatures, prompting traders to buy this option. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '34°C' increased from 14c to 32c, driven by temperature forecasts trending around 34°C, increasing its probability. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '33°C' peaked at 31c before falling to 21.5c, showing fluctuating market assessments of its likelihood. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 19:03:18, the price of '31°C' dropped from 14c to 0.75c, as actual temperature expectations are significantly higher, making this option highly unlikely. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, prices for '29°C' and below all dropped below 1c, as such low temperatures are extremely unlikely given the current season and forecasts.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the winning temperature bracket for Karachi on April 17 be officially decided using the Wunderground Masroor Airbase data?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Weather|$49.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+89.7¢
26°C or below(No)
+34.9¢
29°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on April ...
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Movers
Between 14:43 and 16:53 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 28.5c to 37.5c (later retracing to 31.5c), driven by updated weather forecast data approaching the resolution time that significantly increased market expectations for this temperature range. Between 11:28 and 14:43 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 27°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 8c (later recovering to 13.5c), as the forecasted temperature median shifted upward, drastically reducing the expected probability of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
At what time does Wunderground typically update and finalize the daily highest temperature data for the Guangzhou Baiyun Airport (ZGGG) station before the market can resolve?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?
Weather|$42.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+69.7¢
16°C(No)
+19.7¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast trends and prediction market price movements, the expected high...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city is a standard proposition in prediction markets, but it still carries a moderate level of novelty for the general public who wouldn't naturally ponder or bet on such localized daily data.
Movers
From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 20c to 32.5c, and the 16°C option surged from 20c to 31c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 28c to 12.5c. This is due to updated meteorological forecasts closer to the expiration date indicating a significant downward revision in Cape Town's expected high temperatures due to a cold front.
AI Analysis
According to the rules, how exactly will the highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17 be determined using Wunderground's FACT station data, and what happens if the data is revised later?
Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?
Weather|$38.1k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+63.8¢
33°C(No)
+29.8¢
34°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts, the highest temperature at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in Jakarta...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard derivative play in prediction markets, but the general public rarely makes specific forecasts for such highly granular local data.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 31°C plummeted from 20.5c to 4c, and 37°C or higher crashed from 16c to 0.4c. Other non-core options such as 35°C, 36°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw drops exceeding 10c. This occurred because as the resolution date approaches, weather forecasts became much more precise, ruling out extreme temperature scenarios and causing funds to concentrate rapidly on the core 32°C-34°C probability range.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the data update frequency for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station (WIHH) on Wunderground, and is there any risk of delayed data finalization for the April 17 resolution?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?
Weather|$50.6k Vol|
time38 mins

Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
24°C(No)
+6.5¢
23°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature for Milan Malpensa on April 17 is exp...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a highly common daily topic, betting on the exact highest temperature down to a whole degree at a specific airport station remains a relatively niche and quantitative activity in prediction markets.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 24°C surged from 26.5c to 44.5c, and 23°C surged from 14c to 41.5c, while 22°C plummeted from 19.5c to 3.5c. This is because as the date approaches, weather forecasting models have become more concentrated and revised their expectations for the high temperature upward to the 23-24°C range.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the winning temperature range be decided based on Wunderground's Malpensa Airport data, and how does the whole-degree Celsius rounding work?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
53°F or below
YesNo
5.8¢
94.2¢
35¢
65¢
+29.2¢
0¢
56-57°F
YesNo
41¢
59¢
15¢
85¢
0¢
+26¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of '54-55°F' surged from 18.5c to 46c (settling around 40.5c), and '53°F or below' spiked from 11.5c to a peak of 56c, while '56-57°F' and '58-59°F' plummeted. This was driven by final day-of forecasts explicitly predicting steady rain and heavily downgrading the expected high to exactly 54°F. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '56-57°F' surged from 16.5c to 41.5c, as approaching weather forecasts increasingly pinpointed Seattle's high temperature falling within this bracket. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '60-61°F' plummeted from 24.5c to 8c, because updated forecasts ruled out the possibility of temperatures reaching above 60°F. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '56-57°F' surged from 13c to 32c, while '53°F or below' plummeted from 27c to 6c. This was driven by updated weather models ruling out extreme low temperatures and converging around the 55-58°F range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '58-59°F' surged from 13.5c to 31.5c, as short-term forecast updates suggested marine airmasses could bring slightly warmer daytime heating than previously expected.

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