Predicting the exact peak temperature of a specific city on a single day is a somewhat niche topic. While these events are common in prediction markets (akin to retail weather derivatives), the general public and mainstream investors rarely speculate on or track precise daily temperature values.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of '28°C' surged from 17.1c to 99.45c, while '29°C' and '30°C' collapsed from over 30c to near zero. This was because as the daytime passed on the settlement day, the actual highest temperature at ZGSZ airport was confirmed to have peaked at exactly 28°C, and the market quickly priced in the finalized outcome. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of '30°C' surged from 33c to 45c, while '29°C' retraced from a high of 47c to 31c. This occurred because real-time morning temperature trends on the settlement day showed strong warming, prompting the market to temporarily upgrade the expected high to 30°C before the actual peak was reached. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '29°C' surged from 30.5c to 44c, and '30°C' surged from 17.5c to 36.5c, while '27°C' and '28°C' collapsed to near zero. This occurred because the latest weather models revised the high temperature forecast upwards, concentrating market expectations on 29°C and 30°C. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '32°C or higher' plummeted from 26.5c to 2.5c, and '25°C' dropped from 17.5c to 2.2c, while '27°C' experienced heavy fluctuations between 17.5c and 32.5c. This was driven by the stabilization of weather forecasts as the date approached, which aggressively priced out the extreme tail scenarios and concentrated expectations into the 27°C - 29°C range.