What are the exact resolution criteria for the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22, and how can the win/loss conditions based on NOAA data at Ben Gurion Airport be explained simply?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the exact resolution criteria for the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22, and how can the win/loss conditions based on NOAA data at Ben Gurion Airport be explained simply?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is the NOAA weather time-series data source (weather.gov) for Ben Gurion Airport updating stably, and is there any risk of data interruption delaying the temperature resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: Is the NOAA weather time-series data source (weather.gov) for Ben Gurion Airport updating stably, and is there any risk of data interruption delaying the temperature resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What were the historical highest temperatures in Tel Aviv on April 22 over the past few years, and how do these frequency statistics affect the current odds for each temperature option?

AI-powered analysis for: What were the historical highest temperatures in Tel Aviv on April 22 over the past few years, and how do these frequency statistics affect the current odds for each temperature option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

At what exact time does NOAA typically finalize all hourly temperature data for Tel Aviv (LLBG) for the day, thereby triggering the market resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: At what exact time does NOAA typically finalize all hourly temperature data for Tel Aviv (LLBG) for the day, thereby triggering the market resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the meteorological arguments against Tel Aviv's temperature reaching the extreme of '26°C or higher' on April 22?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the meteorological arguments against Tel Aviv's temperature reaching the extreme of '26°C or higher' on April 22?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How accurate are the current weather forecast models for Tel Aviv on April 22? Is this a purely random event or one with highly predictable meteorological logic?

AI-powered analysis for: How accurate are the current weather forecast models for Tel Aviv on April 22? Is this a purely random event or one with highly predictable meteorological logic?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any potential weather catalysts, such as cold fronts, rain, or heatwaves, in the coming days that could cause extreme volatility in the win rates of specific temperature options?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any potential weather catalysts, such as cold fronts, rain, or heatwaves, in the coming days that could cause extreme volatility in the win rates of specific temperature options?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the latest forecasts and sentiment from well-known weather analysts or local Israeli KOLs on Twitter regarding the temperature at Ben Gurion Airport on April 22?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the latest forecasts and sentiment from well-known weather analysts or local Israeli KOLs on Twitter regarding the temperature at Ben Gurion Airport on April 22?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current low volume of only $210, what are the order book depth and slippage risks if a larger capital amount is invested in the '22°C' or '23°C' options?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current low volume of only $210, what are the order book depth and slippage risks if a larger capital amount is invested in the '22°C' or '23°C' options?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

In this Tel Aviv temperature market, is betting on fringe options like '16°C or below' a high-win-rate 'picking up pennies' strategy, or purely a high-risk 'lottery ticket' behavior?

AI-powered analysis for: In this Tel Aviv temperature market, is betting on fringe options like '16°C or below' a high-win-rate 'picking up pennies' strategy, or purely a high-risk 'lottery ticket' behavior?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

As April 22 approaches, which temperature range option will benefit the most from time decay (Theta) if the authoritative weather forecast for Tel Aviv remains stable?

AI-powered analysis for: As April 22 approaches, which temperature range option will benefit the most from time decay (Theta) if the authoritative weather forecast for Tel Aviv remains stable?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any core disagreements or potential rule disputes among traders in the Polymarket community regarding the resolution rule that 'NOAA temperatures are recorded in whole degrees Celsius'?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any core disagreements or potential rule disputes among traders in the Polymarket community regarding the resolution rule that 'NOAA temperatures are recorded in whole degrees Celsius'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If extreme anomalous weather occurs, what is the logical meteorological projection for the lowest possible highest temperature limit (e.g., 18°C or lower) for Tel Aviv on April 22?

AI-powered analysis for: If extreme anomalous weather occurs, what is the logical meteorological projection for the lowest possible highest temperature limit (e.g., 18°C or lower) for Tel Aviv on April 22?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the latest weather forecast models and bid-ask spreads, at what price should I set a limit order for the most popular temperature option (e.g., 23°C) to ensure execution?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the latest weather forecast models and bid-ask spreads, at what price should I set a limit order for the most popular temperature option (e.g., 23°C) to ensure execution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can I effectively deploy a 'stink bid' strategy in the deep order book for '25°C' or '17°C' options in this low-liquidity temperature market to catch sudden dumps?

AI-powered analysis for: How can I effectively deploy a 'stink bid' strategy in the deep order book for '25°C' or '17°C' options in this low-liquidity temperature market to catch sudden dumps?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If Tel Aviv's weather forecast suddenly drastically changes, what core meteorological indicator (like cloud cover or wind direction) should I set as an absolute stop-loss red line for a bet on the '24°C' option?

AI-powered analysis for: If Tel Aviv's weather forecast suddenly drastically changes, what core meteorological indicator (like cloud cover or wind direction) should I set as an absolute stop-loss red line for a bet on the '24°C' option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on my confidence level in the short-term weather forecast accuracy for Israel, what percentage of my portfolio should I allocate to the highest-probability temperature option using the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on my confidence level in the short-term weather forecast accuracy for Israel, what percentage of my portfolio should I allocate to the highest-probability temperature option using the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming I invest funds betting on Tel Aviv's temperature being '21°C', what is the actual estimated net ROI after deducting cross-platform withdrawal slippage and Gas fees?

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming I invest funds betting on Tel Aviv's temperature being '21°C', what is the actual estimated net ROI after deducting cross-platform withdrawal slippage and Gas fees?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

To diversify risks, what other highly correlated weather-related prediction markets are currently available on Polymarket to construct a combination hedge bet?

AI-powered analysis for: To diversify risks, what other highly correlated weather-related prediction markets are currently available on Polymarket to construct a combination hedge bet?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

For a micro-capital user, which underdog, high-payout option (e.g., 19°C or 26°C or higher) in this temperature market offers the most entertaining 'lottery ticket' experience?

AI-powered analysis for: For a micro-capital user, which underdog, high-payout option (e.g., 19°C or 26°C or higher) in this temperature market offers the most entertaining 'lottery ticket' experience?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22?

Weather|$12.9k Vol|

21 hrs 18 mins

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+5.5¢

24°C(Yes)

+3.5¢

23°C(No)

+2.5¢

22°C(No)

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 22? AI analysis: • +5.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) on Apri...

🔓 Log in to see more

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

24°C

YesNo

36.5¢

63.5¢

42¢

58¢

+5.5¢

0¢

23°C

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

38¢

62¢

0¢

+3.5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

There are some resolution traps. First, the title mentions Tel Aviv, but the rules explicitly state the use of data from Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) located in Lod, which may have a temperature discrepancy. Second, there might be timezone traps regarding how 'April 22' is defined (e.g., UTC vs. Israel local time) in the NOAA timeseries. Finally, resolving to whole degrees Celsius could catch traders off guard if they rely on decimal-level forecasts.

Movers

Between April 20, 2026, and April 21, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 21c to 41.5c, and the 23°C option rose from 22.5c to 37.5c. Concurrently, the 22°C option plummeted from 27c to 12c, and the 21°C option dropped from 16c to 2.2c. This was caused by updated weather models shifting the expected high temperature upwards as the resolution date approaches.