What are the specific resolution rules for this market (ELI5), and how exactly will the highest temperature on April 14 at Tokyo Haneda Airport be verified via Wunderground?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the specific resolution rules for this market (ELI5), and how exactly will the highest temperature on April 14 at Tokyo Haneda Airport be verified via Wunderground?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How predictable is Tokyo's highest temperature based on current professional weather models? What is the degree of weather randomness and margin of error that could shift the result into adjacent temperature ranges?

AI-powered analysis for: How predictable is Tokyo's highest temperature based on current professional weather models? What is the degree of weather randomness and margin of error that could shift the result into adjacent temperature ranges?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low market volume (29.0), how can I formulate a 'stink bid' strategy to catch cheap extreme temperature options (like 25°C or higher, or 15°C or below) in case of sudden weather shifts?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low market volume (29.0), how can I formulate a 'stink bid' strategy to catch cheap extreme temperature options (like 25°C or higher, or 15°C or below) in case of sudden weather shifts?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 14?

Weather|$182.6k Vol|

4 hrs 5 mins

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 14? - AI Found +89.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 4 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+89.4¢

21°C(No)

+49.7¢

22°C(Yes)

+29.5¢

23°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 14? AI analysis: • +89.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecasts and live data, the temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport has alr...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

21°C

YesNo

99.35¢

0.65¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+89.4¢

22°C

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

50¢

+49.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

While checking the weather forecast is a daily habit, predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day as a tradable market is somewhat novel and niche for the general public.

Movers

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the Yes price of 22°C surged from 35c to 47.5c, while 23°C fell from 41.5c to 28.5c, and 24°C plummeted from 17c to 3.5c. As the resolution day approached, real-time data and updated forecasts indicated the high is more likely to stall at 22°C, reducing the probabilities of 23°C and above. April 13, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price of 23°C climbed from 25.5c to 41.5c. Updated short-term weather models favor a warmer outcome around 73°F (22.8°C), shifting market confidence toward 23°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price of 21°C plummeted from 35c to 6c. This is because weather forecasts further confirmed the high would reach 22°C-23°C, drastically reducing the probability of 21°C.