[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Simultaneously, search Ballotpedia or Wikipedia for the 'List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2026' to tally the currently confirmed Democratic House retirements (the 'floor' count) and compare this against the market's popular ranges (e.g., 28-31) to identify mispricing or arbitrage opportunities.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Simultaneously, search Ballotpedia or Wikipedia for the 'List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2026' to tally the currently confirmed Democratic House retirements (the 'floor' count) and compare this against the market's popular ranges (e.g., 28-31) to identify mispricing or arbitrage opportunities.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for and calculate the total number of Democratic House retirements in the past three election cycles (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Specifically distinguish between 'pure retirements' and those 'seeking other offices' (e.g., Senate/Governor runs) to determine if the market's current median prediction (28-31) aligns with historical statistical norms.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for and calculate the total number of Democratic House retirements in the past three election cycles (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Specifically distinguish between 'pure retirements' and those 'seeking other offices' (e.g., Senate/Governor runs) to determine if the market's current median prediction (28-31) aligns with historical statistical norms.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that this market resolves in late August 2026, calculate the potential maximum ROI at current odds and compare it against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi (e.g., 5-10% APY) for the same duration. Determine if the current edge is sufficient to justify the capital lock-up cost for several months.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that this market resolves in late August 2026, calculate the potential maximum ROI at current odds and compare it against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi (e.g., 5-10% APY) for the same duration. Determine if the current edge is sufficient to justify the capital lock-up cost for several months.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Politics|$27.4k Vol|

138 days 2 hrs

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026? - AI Found +16.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.03 06:35

Top Undervalued

+16.5¢

24–27(Yes)

+7.7¢

20–23(Yes)

+6.5¢

28–31(No)

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026? AI analysis: • +16.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sudden surge in the '20-23' bracket from ~8.5c to ~47c suggests news or a reassessment of the re...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

24–27

YesNo

28.5¢

71.5¢

45¢

55¢

+16.5¢

0¢

20–23

YesNo

17.3¢

82.7¢

25¢

75¢

+7.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the '20–23' option surged from 8.5c to 47.35c, likely due to a market reassessment of the latest confirmed retirement lists or resolution criteria, drastically increasing the perceived probability of the total falling in this range. March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the '24–27' option surged from 25.5c to 43.5c. The reason is that as media outlets like AP confirmed the retirement count has reached 21-22, the market realized the buffer for the '20-23' option has mostly evaporated. Capital rapidly shifted to the next logical bracket (24-27), identifying it as the new high-probability landing spot. March 1, 2026 - March 2, 2026, the price of the '32–35' option crashed from 18.5c to 7.1c. The reason was the passing of key state filing deadlines without an expected surge in additional retirements, causing a collapse in the probability of higher-range outcomes.