Given the current context is early 2026, the number of rate cuts this year directly determines the risk-free rate and liquidity environment. A drastic shift in expectations (e.g., from 3 cuts to 0) would cause significant volatility in US Treasury yields (US 10Y) and trigger a major repricing of risk assets (Equities, Gold, Bitcoin).

There is a divergence between market pricing and the Federal Reserve's official long-term projections (such as the dot plot). The Fed typically tends to retain the flexibility of moderate rate cuts in its projections to address potential economic slowdowns, while the prediction market is currently aggressively betting on '0 cuts' (over 40% probability). This indicates that traders' concerns about sticky inflation far exceed the official baseline expectations.