[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest news and fundraising updates regarding GOP Senators up for re-election in 2026 (e.g., McConnell, Collins, Graham), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and odds distribution for options (e.g., 7, 9, <5), and assess if the current consensus price adequately reflects the age structure and health risks of the candidates.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Retrieve the latest news and fundraising updates regarding GOP Senators up for re-election in 2026 (e.g., McConnell, Collins, Graham), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and odds distribution for options (e.g., 7, 9, <5), and assess if the current consensus price adequately reflects the age structure and health risks of the candidates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification: Key Players Mining & Historical Benchmarks] Search for the full roster of 'Class 2' Republican Senators up for re-election in 2026, specifically flagging those over age 75 or in competitive swing states, and compare this with average retirement numbers from the last three midterm cycles to verify if the popular option (e.g., '9') is statistically deviant from historical norms.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification: Key Players Mining & Historical Benchmarks] Search for the full roster of 'Class 2' Republican Senators up for re-election in 2026, specifically flagging those over age 75 or in competitive swing states, and compare this with average retirement numbers from the last three midterm cycles to verify if the popular option (e.g., '9') is statistically deviant from historical norms.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Given the resolution date of August 2026 (long-tail event), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital versus risk-free DeFi yields over this period, and determine the necessary risk premium the current odds for options like '7' or '8' must offer to justify the loss of liquidity for over a year.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Given the resolution date of August 2026 (long-tail event), calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital versus risk-free DeFi yields over this period, and determine the necessary risk premium the current odds for options like '7' or '8' must offer to justify the loss of liquidity for over a year.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

Elections|$72.7k Vol|

138 days 12 hrs

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 15:58

Top Undervalued

+6.8¢

11(No)

+5.6¢

5(No)

+5¢

7(Yes)

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026? AI analysis: • +6.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of April 13, 2026, the probability of option '7' has surged further from around 60% to 74.5% over...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

7.8¢

92.2¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+6.8¢

YesNo

7.6¢

92.4¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+5.6¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '7' surged from 61c to 74.5c, as the market further confirmed the 7-retirement baseline and consensus highly concentrated on this option. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of '7' surged from 35c to 58.5c, while '6' crashed from 36.5c to 13c, as the market confirmed substantial news of a 7th Republican Senator not seeking reelection, shifting the baseline consensus from 6 to 7. March 11, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '5' steadily declined from 16.2c to 6.7c, as the market absorbed new political intelligence confirming the high likelihood of a 6th Senator not running, effectively dashing hopes of the count staying at 5. March 11, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of '6' experienced significant volatility, crashing from 67.5c to 47.5c before recovering to 57c on March 17. This indicates a brief period of panic or disagreement regarding whether the count would stop at 6 or jump to 7, before confidence settled back on '6'. March 1, 2026 - March 3, 2026, option '7' saw a minor spike from 8c to 12c before retracting; however, the current price suggests that the speculative fear from early March has now been validated by actual news.