Based on historical data from the past year, what is the average number of monthly SpaceX launches, and what is the probability of them achieving 15 or more launches in April 2026?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on historical data from the past year, what is the average number of monthly SpaceX launches, and what is the probability of them achieving 15 or more launches in April 2026?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is there any delay in data updates on the official spacex.com/launches page? How do the rules define a launch that occurs exactly at midnight on April 30?

AI-powered analysis for: Is there any delay in data updates on the official spacex.com/launches page? How do the rules define a launch that occurs exactly at midnight on April 30?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search the weather forecasts and maintenance schedules for Florida and Texas launch sites in April to confirm if there are key timelines that could cause significant delays for SpaceX launches.

AI-powered analysis for: Search the weather forecasts and maintenance schedules for Florida and Texas launch sites in April to confirm if there are key timelines that could cause significant delays for SpaceX launches.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What is the current launch readiness of Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship? Are there any recent technical anomalies that could affect the April launch schedule?

AI-powered analysis for: What is the current launch readiness of Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship? Are there any recent technical anomalies that could affect the April launch schedule?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

List the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., FAA reviews, severe weather, or rocket groundings) for why SpaceX might launch 11 or fewer times (≤11) in April.

AI-powered analysis for: List the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., FAA reviews, severe weather, or rocket groundings) for why SpaceX might launch 11 or fewer times (≤11) in April.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms: Does it count as long as the rocket lifts off? If the mission fails after launch, does it still count towards the total?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms: Does it count as long as the rocket lifts off? If the mission fails after launch, does it still count towards the total?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search Twitter for the latest predictions and sentiment from prominent space industry analysts (like Eric Berger) regarding SpaceX's launch cadence for Q2 2026.

AI-powered analysis for: Search Twitter for the latest predictions and sentiment from prominent space industry analysts (like Eric Berger) regarding SpaceX's launch cadence for Q2 2026.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any critical Starlink or commercial payload delivery deadlines in the next 48 hours that could serve as a catalyst to confirm the launch cadence for early April?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any critical Starlink or commercial payload delivery deadlines in the next 48 hours that could serve as a catalyst to confirm the launch cadence for early April?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low market volume (28.125), evaluate the order book depth and potential slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '15' launches option.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low market volume (28.125), evaluate the order book depth and potential slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '15' launches option.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

As time progresses through April, which option (e.g., ≤11 or 12) benefits most from time decay (Theta) if the launch pace is slow in the first two weeks?

AI-powered analysis for: As time progresses through April, which option (e.g., ≤11 or 12) benefits most from time decay (Theta) if the launch pace is slow in the first two weeks?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze whether SpaceX's monthly launch count is highly predictable (based on official manifests) or highly random (susceptible to weather and sudden technical issues).

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze whether SpaceX's monthly launch count is highly predictable (based on official manifests) or highly random (susceptible to weather and sudden technical issues).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Summarize the core disagreements in the Polymarket community or Discord: Are traders debating whether Starship test flights or specific rideshare missions meet the official resolution criteria?

AI-powered analysis for: Summarize the core disagreements in the Polymarket community or Discord: Are traders debating whether Starship test flights or specific rideshare missions meet the official resolution criteria?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Create a one-page trading plan: What is the core rationale for betting on the '13' or '14' launch brackets? If a Falcon 9 grounding occurs, what are the invalidation conditions and stop-loss levels?

AI-powered analysis for: Create a one-page trading plan: What is the core rationale for betting on the '13' or '14' launch brackets? If a Falcon 9 grounding occurs, what are the invalidation conditions and stop-loss levels?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter or YouTube accounts dedicated to spaceflight (e.g., Next Spaceflight) for real-time tracking and forecasting of SpaceX's April launch schedule.

AI-powered analysis for: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter or YouTube accounts dedicated to spaceflight (e.g., Next Spaceflight) for real-time tracking and forecasting of SpaceX's April launch schedule.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Suggest a hard stop-loss red line: For example, if an FAA investigation is announced due to an anomaly before mid-month, immediately close all high-frequency launch (15 or more) positions.

AI-powered analysis for: Suggest a hard stop-loss red line: For example, if an FAA investigation is announced due to an anomaly before mid-month, immediately close all high-frequency launch (15 or more) positions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the probability distribution across the 7 options, suggest an optimal limit order price for the most likely '13' or '14' brackets that is easy to fill without losing the mathematical edge.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the probability distribution across the 7 options, suggest an optimal limit order price for the most likely '13' or '14' brackets that is easy to fill without losing the mathematical edge.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming a $1,000 investment for calendar arbitrage or a multi-option combo bet, calculate the actual net ROI after deducting estimated Gas fees and slippage.

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming a $1,000 investment for calendar arbitrage or a multi-option combo bet, calculate the actual net ROI after deducting estimated Gas fees and slippage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If I am 80% confident that a launch pad-level delay will occur in April, what percentage of my portfolio should I allocate to the '≤11' option according to the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: If I am 80% confident that a launch pad-level delay will occur in April, what percentage of my portfolio should I allocate to the '≤11' option according to the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols, calculate if the opportunity cost of locking up funds until April 30, 2026, is worth the excess return for the favorite launch bracket.

AI-powered analysis for: Compared to risk-free yields in DeFi protocols, calculate if the opportunity cost of locking up funds until April 30, 2026, is worth the excess return for the favorite launch bracket.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

For small-capital users, recommend an underdog option with highly attractive odds (such as '17 or more' as a $10 lottery ticket strategy) that still has a realistic chance of occurring.

AI-powered analysis for: For small-capital users, recommend an underdog option with highly attractive odds (such as '17 or more' as a $10 lottery ticket strategy) that still has a realistic chance of occurring.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many SpaceX launches in April?

Culture|$42.3k Vol|

15 days 12 hrs

How many SpaceX launches in April? - AI Found +38.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.09 17:04

Top Undervalued

+38.7¢

14(Yes)

+31.2¢

≤11(No)

+11.4¢

12(No)

How many SpaceX launches in April? AI analysis: • +38.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends, the market currently favors 14 launches in April the most (priced ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

3.25¢

96.75¢

42¢

58¢

+38.7¢

0¢

≤11

YesNo

41.2¢

58.8¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+31.2¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The Yes price for option '14' surged from 34c to 46.5c, and the Yes price for '≤11' surged from 7.25c to 17.85c, while the Yes price for '12' plummeted from 28.5c to 15.45c. This reflects a significant adjustment in market expectations for the remaining launch schedule in April, likely due to updated manifests or weather forecasts, making 14 launches much more probable and 12 launches much less likely. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026: The Yes price for option '16' crashed from 26.25c to 6.25c, and the Yes price for '17 or more' dropped from 13.1c to 3.8c. The reason is that as the first week of April concluded, the likelihood of achieving an extremely high launch cadence (16 or more) significantly decreased due to early progress not meeting expectations or schedule adjustments.