[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth (specifically liquidity for extreme options like '<950' and '1250+'), and combined with NOAA historical average tornado data, assess if current odds for each bracket deviate from climatological 'fair value'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth (specifically liquidity for extreme options like '<950' and '1250+'), and combined with NOAA historical average tornado data, assess if current odds for each bracket deviate from climatological 'fair value'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search NOAA/NCEI historical annual tornado count data for the past 10-20 years to calculate the actual frequency of each numerical bracket (e.g., 1000-1200 counts) and compare this with forecasts of how current El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) conditions might impact the 2026 tornado season.

AI-powered analysis for: Search NOAA/NCEI historical annual tornado count data for the past 10-20 years to calculate the actual frequency of each numerical bracket (e.g., 1000-1200 counts) and compare this with forecasts of how current El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) conditions might impact the 2026 tornado season.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the market resolution date is in January 2027 (waiting for full 2026 data), calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for nearly 2 years, and compare it with risk-free yields in DeFi stablecoin protocols to determine the required excess risk premium for this long-duration bet.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the market resolution date is in January 2027 (waiting for full 2026 data), calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for nearly 2 years, and compare it with risk-free yields in DeFi stablecoin protocols to determine the required excess risk premium for this long-duration bet.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Weather|$64.4k Vol|

270 days 16 hrs

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? - AI Found +12.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.12 19:57

Top Undervalued

+12.4¢

1200–1249(Yes)

+5¢

<950(No)

+4.2¢

1000–1049(No)

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? AI analysis: • +12.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on recent market trends and the active spring tornado season, the probability of the annual to...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

1200–1249

YesNo

12.55¢

87.45¢

25¢

75¢

+12.4¢

0¢

<950

YesNo

10¢

90¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting annual tornado counts falls under the category of Weather Derivatives. While it is a serious topic for the insurance and reinsurance industries, it is a relatively niche and specialized subject for the general public and general-purpose prediction markets.

Movers

April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of '1200-1249' surged from 2.75c to 20.8c, and '1250+' surged from 20c to 31c, likely due to severe spring tornado outbreaks in mid-April, causing the market to significantly revise the expected annual total upwards. March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '950-999' surged from 9.5c to 19.85c, and '1200-1249' surged from 6c to 17c. The reason is a massive influx of irrational speculative buying pushing up 'Yes' prices across the board, causing the total implied probability to severely detach from fundamentals. March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of '<950' surged from 10c to 20.5c. The reason is likely the market overreacting to updated forecasts predicting a return of El Niño by summer/fall; traders may be aggressively betting on suppressed late-year activity, ignoring the currently active spring season.