AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.08 03:37
Top Undervalued
+9¢
$10M(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
13¢
Arbitrage
21.9%
Annualized yield
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch? AI analysis: • +9¢ undervalued • 21.9% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy YES on $30M (7.2c) and simultaneously buy NO on $50M (78.95c). Total cost is 86.15c. Whether the final FDV is below $30M (NO wins), between $30M-$50M (both win, payout 200c), above $50M (YES wins), or no token launches (NO wins), the minimum total payout is 100c, making this a completely risk-free arbitrage.
Plan Description:
Due to extreme logical inversions in the market, the sum of the NO price for a higher market cap thr...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to exhibit severe monotonicity violations (logical inversions). The Yes prices ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Real-time High Yield Opportunities
View More
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$10M
YesNo
24¢
76¢
15¢
85¢
0¢
+9¢
$40M
YesNo
13.75¢
86.25¢
5¢
95¢
0¢
+8.7¢
Expand to view all 8 options
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The risk lies in the ambiguity of 'launch' and 'publicly tradable'. While the rules specify 'active, publicly transferable and tradable', disputes could arise if a liquidity pool is created on a DEX with negligible liquidity (fake tokens or high slippage). Additionally, calculating FDV relies on accurate Total Supply data, which is often opaque for early-stage projects.
Exotics
This is a market about the future valuation of a specific, small-cap crypto project (Hurupay). Unless one is a crypto-native user focused on niche airdrops or stablecoin payment sectors, this is unknown to the general public. It is a highly segmented niche market.
Movers
Apr 04, 2026 - Apr 06, 2026, the $50M option's price surged from 9.2c to 21.1c, driven by a lack of market depth where a few irrational buy orders significantly inflated the OTM option, further exacerbating the market's logical inversion.
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, the $40M option corrected from 14.05c to 9.55c as some irrational buy orders were pulled or hit by arbitrageurs, though this has not fully corrected the logical inversion against the $30M option (5.75c).
Mar 02, 2026 - Mar 08, 2026, the market entered a phase of low volatility but high distortion. The $30M option rationalized (dropping from ~10c to 5.6c), while the $40M option remained irrationally strong (~14c), widening the logical inversion spread.
Feb 20, 2026 - Feb 26, 2026, deep OTM options ($100M, $200M) saw counter-intuitive gains (e.g., $100M rising from 2.35c to 6.65c) while mid-range options ($50M) declined, indicating market maker liquidity drainage.
Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, the $5M option crashed from 45c to 18c due to the confirmed failure and refund of the MetaDAO ICO.
Divergence
The prediction market pricing is severely disjointed from fundamental mathematical and financial logic. Mainstream logic dictates that the probability of reaching a $50M FDV cannot mathematically be higher than reaching a $30M FDV. Yet, the market assigns a ~21% chance to >$50M and only a ~7% chance to >$30M. This indicates a complete breakdown of market consensus due to illiquidity and irrational trading.
