[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($10) in this market, analyze the current Bid-Ask Spread for significant slippage risk. Also, considering IA-01's history as a tight swing district, does the current price deviate significantly from a 50/50 'toss-up' fair value?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($10) in this market, analyze the current Bid-Ask Spread for significant slippage risk. Also, considering IA-01's history as a tight swing district, does the current price deviate significantly from a 50/50 'toss-up' fair value?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Key Players Mining] Candidate Status Confirmation: Search to confirm if the incumbent IA-01 Representative (e.g., Mariannette Miller-Meeks) has announced a reelection bid for the 2026 midterms. Also, are there indications of strong Democratic challengers (like Christina Bohannan) planning to run again? How do candidate recognition and rematch history impact early odds?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Key Players Mining] Candidate Status Confirmation: Search to confirm if the incumbent IA-01 Representative (e.g., Mariannette Miller-Meeks) has announced a reelection bid for the 2026 midterms. Also, are there indications of strong Democratic challengers (like Christina Bohannan) planning to run again? How do candidate recognition and rematch history impact early odds?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-term Lock-up Assessment: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026, calculate if the annualized ROI of a winning bet (assuming 50% odds) justifies locking up capital for years compared to risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasuries, especially considering the extreme illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-term Lock-up Assessment: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026, calculate if the annualized ROI of a winning bet (assuming 50% odds) justifies locking up capital for years compared to risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasuries, especially considering the extreme illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

IA-01 House Election Winner

Elections|$683 Vol|

203 days 9 hrs

IA-01 House Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 10:39

Top Undervalued

+4¢

Democratic Party(No)

+2.5¢

Republican Party(Yes)

IA-01 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite the market pricing Democrats even higher at 80c, IA-01 remains an R+3 district with a Republ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

69¢

31¢

65¢

35¢

0¢

+4¢

Republican Party

YesNo

32.5¢

67.5¢

35¢

65¢

+2.5¢

0¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

2026-03-28 to 2026-03-30, Democratic Party price surged from 56.5c to 80c (while Republican dropped from 43.5c to 21c), likely driven by new strong polling or macro political catalysts that further amplified extreme market optimism for a Democratic victory in this district. 2026-03-09 to 2026-03-13, Republican Party price surged from 19c to 34.5c, likely a correction of previously distressed pricing (implied 19% win prob) to better align with incumbent fundamentals in a swing district, despite the bearish macro environment.

Divergence

The market prices an 80% implied probability for the Democrats, while mainstream political analysts (like the Cook Political Report) typically rate an R+3 district with a Republican incumbent as a 'Toss Up' or at most 'Lean' district. The market is significantly diverging from traditional political fundamental expectations.