The rules define 'military action' very narrowly and strictly. It must be aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that actually impact Iranian soil. Intercepted attacks, cyberattacks, artillery, or ground incursions do not qualify. Additionally, a strict 3-day deadline for credible confirmation applies. There is a high risk of misinterpretation for those who only read the title.

A direct Israeli military strike on Iranian soil would severely escalate Middle East tensions, triggering fears of global energy supply disruptions and causing a significant spike in Crude Oil prices. Simultaneously, this geopolitical shock would spark a strong risk-off sentiment, driving capital into safe-haven assets like Gold, while causing a notable drop in broad global equity indices such as the S&P 500.

April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 'April 14' option plummeted from 25c to 1.25c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 44.5c to 21.5c, as no direct conflict erupted in the short term and the April 14 deadline approached, causing market expectations to cool rapidly. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the 'April 14' option surged from 11c to 25c, and the 'April 21' option climbed from 25c to 44.5c, due to intensified market fears of a potential retaliatory military strike over the weekend. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 25c to 11c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 32.5c to 25c, reflecting a brief expectation of de-escalation. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the 'April 14' option dropped from 43c to 17.5c, and the 'April 21' option fell from 59.5c to 38.5c, due to the fading of initial panic and potential diplomatic interventions tempering short-term expectations.