A direct Israeli strike on Yemen (Houthis) would significantly escalate the Red Sea shipping crisis, directly threatening a key oil transit chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb), making Crude Oil the most impacted asset. Gold would benefit as a safe haven. Additionally, shipping stocks (like ZIM) are highly sensitive to Red Sea tensions; escalation typically drives up freight rates and thus stock prices.

2026-04-13 to 2026-04-14, the April 30 option price crashed from 32.5c to 15c, because short-term geopolitical tensions failed to translate into a substantive strike on Yemen, rapidly cooling market expectations for action this month as time decay took dominance. 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-13, the April 30 option price rebounded from 21c to 32.5c, likely due to the market repricing short-term geopolitical risks in the Middle East, or new information triggering speculative buying for action before the end of the month. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-11, prices across most options continued to fall. June 30 dropped from 50c to 39.5c, May 31 from 42.5c to 28c, and April 15 from 18c to 7c. This was because the market's oversold bounce was not followed by actual military strikes from Israel. As deadlines approach, time decay accelerates, and risk-averse sentiment cools further. 2026-04-09 to 2026-04-10, prices across all options fell again. The June 30 option dropped from 50c to 38.5c, May 31 from 42.5c to 29c, April 30 from 34c to 25c, and April 15 from 18c to 9.7c. This retracement occurred because no substantial military escalation materialized after the short-term rebound, cooling market sentiment as time decay reasserted dominance. 2026-04-08 to 2026-04-09, prices for all options rebounded. The June 30 option rose from 30.5c to 50c, May 31 from 22.5c to 42.5c, April 30 from 12.5c to 34c, and April 15 from 5.5c to 18c. This is because the market experienced an oversold bounce after the crash, reassessing the long-term risk of an Israeli military strike on Yemen. 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-08, prices crashed across the board. The June 30 option fell from 79c to 30.5c, May 31 from 73.5c to 22.5c, April 30 from 67c to 12.5c, and April 15 from 37c to 5.5c, caused by a major potential de-escalation in the Middle East or definitive official/intelligence reports ruling out an Israeli airstrike on Yemen in the coming months. 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-07, the April 15 option price further retraced from 48.5c to 37c, as short-term expectations for an immediate strike continued to cool due to a lack of tangible escalation, accelerating the time decay effect. 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-06, the May 31 option rose from 71c to 80c, indicating that the market shifted its expected timeline for a strike further out. 2026-04-04 to 2026-04-05, the April 15 option price rebounded from 28c to 48.5c, and the April 30 option rebounded from 55.5c to 68.5c, likely due to a resurgence of short-term geopolitical tensions or new intelligence suggesting imminent Israeli action. 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-04, the April 15 option price steadily fell from 52.5c to 28c, the April 30 option fell from 73c to 55.5c, and the May 31 option fell from 80c to 66c. The reason is that as time passes, expectations for an immediate direct strike have further cooled, accelerating the time decay effect. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-02, the April 30 option price fell from 77c to 64.5c, and the June 30 option fell from 84.5c to 77.5c. This is because no actual strike occurred as time passed, cooling extreme expectations for an immediate direct military conflict, and time decay effects began to show. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, the May 31 option price retraced from 89c to 77.5c (then 80c), as extreme short-term retaliation expectations cooled slightly due to the lack of an actual strike, leading the market to reassess the specific window for military action. 2026-03-28 to 2026-03-31, the Yes price for the March 31 option plummeted from 66.5c to 6.5c, as the expiration day arrived without an actual strike, causing bullish sentiment to completely fade due to time decay; meanwhile, May 31 retraced from a high of 89c to 77.5c, indicating a slight cooling of extreme short-term tension. 2026-03-27 to 2026-03-28, Yes prices across all options surged massively. March 31 soared from 11.5c to 66.5c, and April 30 from 26.5c to 77.5c. This was caused by a sudden geopolitical escalation or credible intelligence leaks strongly suggesting an imminent retaliatory Israeli strike against the Houthis in Yemen. 2026-03-26 to 2026-03-27, the price of the May 31 option surged from 45.5c to 55.5c in a single day, causing a price inversion with the June 30 option, likely due to targeted large-volume buying or abnormal volatility from low liquidity. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-25, prices crashed across the board, with May 31 dropping from 66.5c to 46c, as the market squeezed out early premium due to a lack of immediate signs of the conflict spilling over into Yemen. 2026-03-15 to 2026-03-20, the price of the March 31 option crashed from 44.5c to 20.5c, caused by a market correction due to 'failed expectations': the Houthis did not immediately join the broader conflict with full force, triggering a short-term sell-off.