April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of '31°C' surged from 22c to 37.5c, and '30°C' temporarily spiked from 20c to 40c. Meanwhile, '28°C or below' plummeted from 26.5c to 5.5c. This occurred because, as the target date approached, updated meteorological models ruled out lower temperature extremes and revised the expected high upward into the 30-31°C range.

While checking the weather is a daily habit, predicting the exact high temperature at a specific airport on a random date is a niche and arbitrary topic that average people wouldn't naturally ponder.

From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the Yes price for the 24°C option climbed from 29.5¢ to 44.0¢. This is due to meteorological models revising the daytime high forecast upwards as the resolution date approaches, making 24°C the most likely outcome. From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the 25°C option experienced a fluctuation, rising from 8.5¢ to a peak of 19.5¢ before settling at 14.5¢. This was driven by some models briefly projecting warmer extremes before the forecast stabilized.

This is a highly specific daily weather prediction market. Unless one is a local resident, traveler, or weather enthusiast, the general public rarely guesses the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a random day, giving it a high novelty and niche factor.

2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 23°C option surged from 27c to 49c, as approaching the resolution date, updated weather forecasts solidified the expectation that the high temperature will likely hit exactly 23°C. 2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 24°C option rose from 21.5c to 36c before dropping back to 24.5c, reflecting temporary fluctuations in market expectations due to minor updates in weather forecasting models.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '14°C' surged from 16c to a peak of 30c before settling at 20.5c, as weather forecasting sources (like Wunderground) slightly adjusted their weekend models downward, shifting the expected high from 15°C to around 14°C. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '13°C' temporarily spiked from 3.5c to 8.8c before falling back, reflecting brief market concerns about the intensity of an incoming cold front.

There is a notable divergence. The latest updates from Wunderground and associated Weather.com forecasts predict a high of 57°F (14°C) at Munich Airport on April 19. However, the prediction market still favors 15°C and keeps 16°C artificially high at 25.5c. With only 1 day left until resolution, forecast reliability is exceptionally high. The market pricing is lagging behind the most recent meteorological model updates, overestimating the probability of temperatures hitting 15°C or higher.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day belongs to the niche but established weather prediction market. While ordinary people do not think about this daily, it is not completely absurd and has an objective, scientific forecasting basis.

From April 17 to April 18, 2026, the Yes price for 42°C surged from 28c to 47.5c, while 41°C plummeted from 26.5c to 9.5c, and 44°C dropped from 13.5c to 3.7c. This is because, as the target date approaches, weather forecasts have become significantly more accurate, with models consistently converging around 42°C and eliminating uncertainty for fringe options. No single option had experienced a severe price movement exceeding 10c over the past 3 days (as of the previous record).