Apr 03, 2026 - Apr 06, 2026, the price of 'June 30' fell significantly from 31c to 13c. This was driven by mainstream political reporting (e.g., The Guardian) revealing that Labour MPs are unlikely to launch a leadership challenge even if the party loses heavily in May, coupled with Starmer enacting popular base-pleasing policies in early April that reduced the risk of a coup. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, the price of 'June 30' fell from 55c to 40c, because as the end of March approached without any substantive leadership challenge materializing, traders reduced their risk exposure ahead of the May local elections, leading to the liquidation of long positions. Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, the price of 'June 30' plummeted from 36.5c to 24c, as key mid-March political hurdles passed without incident, leading the market to believe the imminent threat to Starmer had temporarily lifted, causing a liquidation of short-term bearish bets. Feb 22, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, the price of 'June 30' dropped from 43c to 33c, as the market entered a cooling-off period after Starmer survived the mid-February 'coup week', ignoring the high risk of the Feb 26 by-election. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, the price of 'March 31' plummeted from 17.7c to 5.6c, because although a Cabinet crisis occurred, Starmer stabilized the situation in the subsequent meeting, leading to a sell-off of 'immediate exit' bets.