[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page. Given the low volume of $3,609, analyze whether the current bid-ask spread is excessive. Combine this with the latest Maine GOP dynamics to assess whether the odds for candidates like Owen McCarthy or Ken Capron reflect actual voter support or are simply price distortions due to illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page. Given the low volume of $3,609, analyze whether the current bid-ask spread is excessive. Combine this with the latest Maine GOP dynamics to assess whether the odds for candidates like Owen McCarthy or Ken Capron reflect actual voter support or are simply price distortions due to illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rules/Timeline] Filing Deadline & Qualification Check: As of March 1, 2026, search the Maine Secretary of State's official schedule for the June primary candidate filing deadline (typically mid-March). Specifically verify if listed candidates like Robert Wessels or James Libby have officially submitted signatures and qualified for the ballot, to avoid the risk of betting on candidates who fail to make the ballot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Rules/Timeline] Filing Deadline & Qualification Check: As of March 1, 2026, search the Maine Secretary of State's official schedule for the June primary candidate filing deadline (typically mid-March). Specifically verify if listed candidates like Robert Wessels or James Libby have officially submitted signatures and qualified for the ballot, to avoid the risk of betting on candidates who fail to make the ballot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] "Stink Bid" Strategy Deployment: For a "zombie market" with under $4,000 in total volume, market orders will cause massive slippage. Formulate a "Stink Bid" strategy by calculating at what extremely low odds (e.g., 5-10%) to place limit buy orders for top candidates or the "Other" option, passively waiting to get filled by mispricing caused by liquidity dry-ups.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] "Stink Bid" Strategy Deployment: For a "zombie market" with under $4,000 in total volume, market orders will cause massive slippage. Formulate a "Stink Bid" strategy by calculating at what extremely low odds (e.g., 5-10%) to place limit buy orders for top candidates or the "Other" option, passively waiting to get filled by mispricing caused by liquidity dry-ups.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner

Politics|$12.8k Vol|

55 days 16 hrs

Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.03 00:37

Top Undervalued

+6¢

Robert Charles(No)

+5.4¢

Ken Capron(No)

+5¢

Ben Midgely(Yes)

Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The total implied probability has inflated to approximately 112%, creating a noticeable structural p...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Robert Charles

YesNo

54¢

46¢

48¢

52¢

0¢

+6¢

Ken Capron

YesNo

8.4¢

91.6¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+5.4¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

2026-03-30 - 2026-04-02, Jonathan Bush's price surged from 13c to 30.2c. The reason is continuous capital rotation from other candidates, establishing him as the primary challenger to Robert Charles. 2026-03-16 - 2026-03-17, David Jones's price surged from 1.9c to 13.5c (a move of >11c) before settling around 10c. The reason is likely speculative capital aggressively seeking a new challenger as Ben Midgely fades, causing liquidity-driven spikes in long-shot options. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-16, Jonathan Bush experienced a rollercoaster, spiking from 4.9c to 18.3c before crashing back to 9.3c, further confirming the chaos and speculation within the non-frontrunner field. 2026-02-25 - 2026-03-03, Robert Charles's price climbed steadily from 50.5c to 61c, while Ben Midgely dropped from 35c to 24.5c, marking the pivotal consolidation phase where Charles was established as the clear favorite.