[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Measles cases in U.S. in 2026' to analyze the odds distribution between the lowest (>2k) and highest (>12.5k) brackets. Incorporating the latest CDC data as of March 2026, assess whether the market is overreacting or underestimating the outbreak risk, and check the order book for arbitrage opportunities on 'low probability, high payout' options (e.g., >10k).

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Measles cases in U.S. in 2026' to analyze the odds distribution between the lowest (>2k) and highest (>12.5k) brackets. Incorporating the latest CDC data as of March 2026, assess whether the market is overreacting or underestimating the outbreak risk, and check the order book for arbitrage opportunities on 'low probability, high payout' options (e.g., >10k).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core Data Sourcing & Historical Comparison: Search Google for 'CDC Measles cases 2026' to retrieve the latest total confirmed cases as of March 2026. Compare this figure with the same period in recent historically high outbreak years (e.g., 2019, which had ~1274 total cases) to verify the statistical probability of reaching the lowest threshold (2,000 cases) within the remaining 9 months.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core Data Sourcing & Historical Comparison: Search Google for 'CDC Measles cases 2026' to retrieve the latest total confirmed cases as of March 2026. Compare this figure with the same period in recent historically high outbreak years (e.g., 2019, which had ~1274 total cases) to verify the statistical probability of reaching the lowest threshold (2,000 cases) within the remaining 9 months.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Seasonal Fractals & Time Decay Analysis: Analyze historical seasonal patterns of measles outbreaks (e.g., do they typically peak in spring?). If Q1 2026 data does not show exponential growth, analyze the rate of time decay (Theta) for the 'Yes' side (e.g., >2k option) and determine if current prices reasonably reflect the fundamental trend of a 'no major outbreak' scenario.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Seasonal Fractals & Time Decay Analysis: Analyze historical seasonal patterns of measles outbreaks (e.g., do they typically peak in spring?). If Q1 2026 data does not show exponential growth, analyze the rate of time decay (Theta) for the 'Yes' side (e.g., >2k option) and determine if current prices reasonably reflect the fundamental trend of a 'no major outbreak' scenario.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Science|$7.6m Vol|

260 days 18 hrs

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - AI Found 3.65% APY

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 07:33

Top Undervalued

+0.5¢

↑7.5k(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

3¢

Arbitrage

3.65%

Annualized yield

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? AI analysis: • +0.5¢ undervalued • 3.65% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:

Simultaneously buy YES on ↑10k and NO on ↑12.5k Plan Description: The current Yes price for ↑10k is 9.95c, while the No price for ↑12.5k is 87.5c. Since reaching 12.5...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market pricing indicates that over 2,000 U.S. measles cases in 2026 is almost certain. After...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

↑7.5k

YesNo

15.5¢

84.5¢

16¢

84¢

+0.5¢

0¢

↑12.5k

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+0.5¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 13, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option rebounded from 71.5c to 83c, while the ↑10k option fell from 15.5c to 10c. This indicates the market adjusted its extreme outbreak expectations, shifting probability weights heavily toward a moderate outbreak of 3,000 to 5,000 cases. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option surged from 71.5c to 84c. This was likely due to the market reassessing the case growth rate from the latest CDC reports, or signs of new cluster outbreaks in local areas during spring, leading to a rapid resurgence in outbreak concerns. Apr 9, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option dropped significantly from 87c to 71.5c. This occurred because the market, after digesting the latest CDC data, concluded that the peak of the spring outbreak had passed, leading to a major downward revision of pessimistic annual forecasts. Apr 3, 2026 - Apr 9, 2026, prices for all options remained highly stable with maximum fluctuations under 5c, as the market continued to consolidate awaiting new data. Mar 28, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026, price fluctuations for all options were minimal. The market entered a stable wait-and-see period after the end of Q1, awaiting guidance from new spring case data. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, price fluctuations for all options were under 6c, with ↑3k and ↑4k showing slight pullbacks. The overall market remained in a consolidation phase, awaiting further spring outbreak data. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, all options fluctuated within 5c. The market continued its consolidation phase as traders awaited more CDC data to confirm if the outbreak trend continues. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the ↑5k option surged from 38.5c to 51.5c. Reason: The market reacted violently to new CDC data (125 weekly cases), fueling panic bets on linear growth and challenging the expectation of a seasonal summer decline. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, the market was in consolidation, with no option moving more than 2c as traders digested Q1 data and awaited signs of a seasonal inflection. Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 19, 2026, the ↑4k option corrected from 72c to 64.5c, indicating a brief subsiding of early panic.