MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics|$40.6k Vol|
time111 days 5 hrs

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 15:49
Top Undervalued
+9¢
Tim Greimel(No)
+4.5¢
Eric Chung(Yes)
+1.5¢
Christina Hines(No)

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The MI-10 Democratic primary has heavily tilted toward frontrunner Eric Chung. Leveraging his overwh...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Politics|$17.3k Vol|
time260 days 5 hrs

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price has risen to around 12c, which likely overstates the actual risk. Given the...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Paris on April 15?
Weather|$42.2k Vol|
time17 hrs 23 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+22.5¢
19°C(No)
+17.9¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground forecast for Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) on April 15, the ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While checking the weather is a common daily activity, placing bets on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche prediction market activity that most people do not actively ponder.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price for 19°C surged from 24c to a peak of 41c before falling to 36.5c, while 18°C rose from 14c to 27c. This volatility was driven by initial weather models predicting warmer highs (around 19°C), followed by subsequent cooler forecast updates that redirected capital towards the 17°C and 18°C options.
Divergence
The market still prices 19°C as the frontrunner (36.5c), yet the latest official Wunderground forecasts explicitly show the expected high for April 15 has been revised down to 63°F-64°F (17°C-18°C) [2]. There is a lag in the market's reaction to the updated meteorological models, causing a significant divergence between the priced expectations and the current weather reality.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in London on April 15?
Weather|$108.9k Vol|
time17 hrs 23 mins

Highest temperature in London on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
16°C(Yes)
+6¢
17°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest forecasts and current market pricing trends, the highest temperature in London o...
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Movers
Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of 16°C fluctuated from 33.5c to 28c, 15°C plummeted from 22c to 2.6c, 17°C rose from 32c to 39.5c before settling at 32c, and 18°C surged from 9.5c to 23.5c. The reason is that as the expiration date approaches, updated weather forecasts indicate an upward revision in expected high temperatures, eliminating cooler possibilities and increasing the likelihood of 17°C and 18°C. Between April 13 and April 14, 2026, the price of 13°C fell from 12.5c to near zero (0.5c). The reason is that updated forecasts have confidently shifted the expected high temperature to the 16°C-18°C range, virtually eliminating the chances of cooler outcomes.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 15?
Weather|$19.5k Vol|
time17 hrs 23 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+14¢
25°C(No)
+6¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the highest temperature at Sao Paulo Guarulhos Air...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 28°C option plunged from 34c to 18c (before slightly recovering to 23c), as weather models narrowed their forecast ranges for the peak temperature as the date approached, reducing the probability of higher extremes and shifting the center towards 26°C-27°C. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 30°C option dropped from 12.5c to around 2.5c, also due to increased certainty in weather forecasts ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 15?
Weather|$33.9k Vol|
time17 hrs 23 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+2.9¢
25°C(Yes)
+2.8¢
20°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature at Buenos Aires Ezeiza Airpor...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 27.5c to 40.5c, as approaching the resolution date, updated meteorological models further solidified 23°C as the most likely high-temperature bracket. April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 31c to 11.5c before rebounding to 24.5c. This was caused by conflicting updates from different weather forecasting sources on that day, leading to short-term severe volatility in market expectations.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Tim Greimel
YesNo
26¢
74¢
17¢
83¢
+9¢
Eric Chung
YesNo
66.5¢
33.5¢
71¢
29¢
+4.5¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Eric Chung's price surged from 58c to 72c. Reason: His campaign momentum solidified, causing market capital to rapidly concentrate on the definitive frontrunner. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Christina Hines's price plummeted from 19.5c to 6.5c. Reason: Her campaign hit a bottleneck, leading the market to price her out as a marginal candidate. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, Brian Jaye's price crashed from 16.5c to 5c. Reason: His abysmal fundraising finally forced the last remaining speculative money to capitulate. March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Tim Greimel's price surged from 10c to 39.5c. Reason: A massive market correction aligning his price with his strong fundamentals as Mayor of Pontiac. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Eric Chung's price rose from 34.5c to 47.5c before settling at 43.5c. Reason: Consolidation of his status as the fundraising frontrunner. March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Brian Jaye's price faded from a speculative high of 31.5c to 19c. Reason: Speculative interest waned as his lack of campaign funds weighed on the price.

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MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert