The definition of 'strike' is very narrow: it must be an aerial strike (drones, missiles, bombs) by the US or Israel impacting Iranian soil or official diplomatic compounds. Intercepted missiles, SAM debris, artillery, ground incursions, and cyberattacks are excluded. Furthermore, it requires a 'full calendar day' without a strike, and if a strike isn't confirmed by credible reporting within three days, it counts as not happening. These strict exclusions mean severe military conflicts could occur while the market still resolves to 'Yes' (no military action).

A direct aerial strike by the US or Israel on Iranian soil would trigger a severe escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts. This would cause crude oil prices to spike (impacting global supply chains and inflation), while surging risk-off sentiment would drive up Gold prices and lead to significant sell-offs in US equities (e.g., S&P 500). The US 10Y Yield would also fluctuate due to safe-haven flows. This is a classic macroeconomic geopolitical event with structural shock potential.