Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' hovered around 38c, while '4.6-4.8m sq km' dropped from 18.5c to 10.5c, and '4.4-4.6m sq km' rose from 20.55c to 23.4c. This indicates minor adjustments in predictions for the central range, though high bets on extreme melting persist. Mar 12, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' rebounded sharply from 25c to 39c, while '5m+ sq km' experienced a rollercoaster ride (dropping from 21c to 7c, then back to 18c). This indicates the market is oscillating wildly between two extreme tail risks (extreme melt vs. extreme freeze) in the absence of definitive data, with liquidity games dominating pricing rather than fundamentals. Feb 24, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' plummeted from 60.5c to 43.5c, while intermediate intervals (4.2-4.6m) saw a collective surge. The reason was a severe mean-reversion correction, fixing the previous irrational over-betting on the extreme melt scenario.

The market currently assigns a 37.5% probability to '<4m sq km', which diverges significantly from mainstream climate science expectations for the 2026 summer sea ice extent. Most models predict a continued decline, but the probability of breaking below 4 million sq km is not nearly 40%. Additionally, the 16.6% for '4.8-5m sq km' and residual odds for '5m+ sq km' are also higher than scientific consensus for extreme highs.