[Mandatory Task] MO-05 Order Book & Liquidity Check: Given the extremely low volume of $453, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and determine if the current odds truly reflect the district's 'safe seat' fundamentals or if the price is distorted due to illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] MO-05 Order Book & Liquidity Check: Given the extremely low volume of $453, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and determine if the current odds truly reflect the district's 'safe seat' fundamentals or if the price is distorted due to illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fundamental Check] Historical Data & PVI Verification: Search for the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Missouri's 5th District and the margin of victory for incumbent Emanuel Cleaver in the last two elections to verify if there is any statistical reality of this seat flipping to the Republicans.

AI-powered analysis for: [Fundamental Check] Historical Data & PVI Verification: Search for the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Missouri's 5th District and the margin of victory for incumbent Emanuel Cleaver in the last two elections to verify if there is any statistical reality of this seat flipping to the Republicans.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Capital Efficiency] Long-Term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Since the resolution date is November 2026, compare the potential total return of buying 'Democrat' now against risk-free assets (like US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) over the same period to determine if the time cost of locking up capital is justifiable.

AI-powered analysis for: [Capital Efficiency] Long-Term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Since the resolution date is November 2026, compare the potential total return of buying 'Democrat' now against risk-free assets (like US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) over the same period to determine if the time cost of locking up capital is justifiable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

MO-05 House Election Winner

Elections|$928 Vol|

203 days 9 hrs

MO-05 House Election Winner - AI Found +65.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 04:08

Top Undervalued

+65.5¢

Democratic Party(Yes)

+59¢

Republican Party(No)

MO-05 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +65.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Missouri's 5th Congressional District (MO-05) is a solidly Democratic district (Cook PVI D+11) cover...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

33.5¢

66.5¢

99¢

1¢

+65.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

60¢

40¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+59¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party plummeted from 52.5c to 26.5c, while the Republican Party surged from 40.5c to 58c. This extreme volatility is entirely due to a severe lack of market liquidity, where a small volume of trades can cause massive price swings, rather than any fundamental news. March 7, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party drifted down from 74.5c to 59.5c. While the cumulative drop is significant (15c), the price action was stable. This slow bleed is likely not news-driven but rather due to bids fading or a lack of buying support in an illiquid market.

Divergence

Mainstream media and political analysts (like Cook Political Report) unanimously consider MO-05 a Solid Democratic seat. However, the current prediction market implies only a 26.5% probability for the Democrats and a 58% probability for the Republicans, representing a massive and absurd divergence from mainstream consensus. This divergence stems entirely from the prediction market's illiquidity and mispricing.