Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above ___ end of 2026?
Indicies|$7,258 Vol|
time261 days 9 hrs

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above ___ end of 2026? - AI Found +20.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.11 05:01
Top Undervalued
+20.7¢
>$38,000(No)
+7.5¢
>$24,000(No)
+4¢
>$27,000(Yes)

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above ___ end of 2026? AI analysis: • +20.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market has corrected the previous monotonicity anomaly where the >$38,000 option was priced high...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Beijing on April 15?
Weather|$17.0k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Beijing on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
27°C(Yes)
+2¢
26°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest forecast data, the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport ...
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Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 26°C option surged from 19c to 31.5c, the 25°C option rose from 22c to 29c, and the 24°C option fell from 31c to 14c. This was due to weather forecast models locking the expected high temperature into the 25°C-26°C range as the date approached, ruling out lower temperatures. April 13, 2026: The Yes price for 25°C surged from 22c to 36c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c. This was driven by updated weather forecast models which ruled out anomalous high temperatures and concentrated expectations around the 24°C-25°C range.
AI Analysis
What is the historical frequency of the highest temperature falling into each option range (e.g., 23°C, 30°C) in Beijing on April 15th over the past few years?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
Weather|$28.0k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+39.5¢
28°C(Yes)
+28.5¢
30°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Shenzhen Bao'an International Ai...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city is a niche prediction market derived from everyday life. While weather forecasts are ubiquitous, treating a single city's daily temperature as a standalone financial prediction event retains a moderate level of novelty.
Movers
On April 13, 2026, several options saw dramatic price drops: '24°C' fell from 20.5c to 1.3c, '25°C' from 32.5c to 1.75c, '26°C' from 20.5c to 4.2c, '27°C' from 20.5c to 7.0c, and '32°C or higher' from 26.5c to 9.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts have confidently pinpointed the high temperature around 28°C, prompting the market to aggressively correct earlier premiums priced for unseasonal extremes.
Divergence
There is a notable divergence. The market is still assigning high probabilities to '29°C' (27c), '30°C' (24c), and '31°C' (21c), pricing them equal to or higher than '28°C' (24.5c). However, virtually all major meteorological platforms (e.g., AccuWeather, Trip.com, Weather.com) project a high of 28°C or 27°C for April 15. The market is significantly overestimating the likelihood of the temperature reaching 30°C or above.
AI Analysis
Explain in simple terms: How is the highest temperature at Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ) on April 15 finalized on Wunderground to resolve this market?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
Weather|$47.8k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+15¢
20°C or higher(Yes)
+7¢
19°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the highest temperature for Shanghai Pudong on Apr...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche daily weather forecast market. While not absurd, it is less mainstream compared to standard political or economic topics, giving it a moderate novelty factor.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the '20°C or higher' option fluctuated drastically between 33c and 56c. This was due to divergence in weather models regarding cloud cover and precipitation probability as the resolution date approached, causing market debate over whether temperatures would break 20°C. April 13, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option surged from 12c to 24.5c. This was due to updated short-term weather forecasting models indicating that cloud cover or light precipitation might suppress the maximum temperature to around 18°C.
AI Analysis
Over the past decade, what is the historical frequency of the highest temperature on April 15 at Shanghai Pudong Airport falling into each of these specific degree bins?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 15?
Weather|$16.1k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
24°C(No)
+4¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest authoritative weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate that Cho...
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Exotics
While daily weather forecasting is extremely common, establishing a prediction market for the exact high temperature of a specific inland city on a specific day down to the exact degree remains a somewhat niche and novelty topic.
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 22°C option steadily rose from 21.5c to a peak of 33.5c. This upward trend was driven by weather forecast models converging on 22°C as the most likely high temperature as the date approached. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The price of the 19°C option plummeted from 11.5c to 1.2c, and the 24°C option dropped from 19.5c to 9.5c. This occurred because the possibility of temperatures straying too far from the median was effectively ruled out by the highly accurate short-term meteorological forecasts.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for this Chongqing temperature market in the simplest terms, specifically how the Wunderground Jiangbei Airport Station (ZUCK) all-time high temperature data for the day will be defined and used?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?
Weather|$22.1k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
80°F or higher(No)
+0.2¢
68-69°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological data, as the target date (April 15) approaches within 24 hour...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' surged from 77c to approximately 92.5c, while the prices for '76-77°F' and '78-79°F' plummeted by over 15c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have highly converged, confirming that Austin's high temperature on April 15 will break the 80°F mark. On April 13, 2026, the prices of multiple lower temperature options (68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F) plummeted, with drops ranging from 12c to 17.5c. The reason is that as the target date approaches, weather forecast models updated and converged, confirming that the high temperature on April 15 will reach around 80°F, thereby eliminating the likelihood of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground KAUS station data, and are there risks of data outages or late revisions affecting the April 15 Austin temperature resolution?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
>$38,000
YesNo
22.7¢
77.3¢
2¢
98¢
0¢
+20.7¢
>$24,000
YesNo
57.5¢
42.5¢
50¢
50¢
0¢
+7.5¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Apr 5, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, the price of the >$38,000 option plummeted from 13.5c to 3.5c. This was caused by improved market liquidity, which naturally corrected the previous 'monotonicity violation' anomaly where this deep out-of-the-money option was irrationally priced higher than lower-strike options. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, no option experienced a sharp volatility of more than 10c. The pricing anomaly caused by poor liquidity in the previous period still exists. Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 8, 2026, the price of the >$33,000 option dropped rapidly from 11c to 4.5c (recovering slightly to 6c), a ~50% decline. The cause appears to be liquidity drying up in this strike, leading to a pricing collapse where it fell below higher-strike options. Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 7, 2026, the >$30,000 option drifted lower from 19.5c to 17.5c, signaling slowly fading confidence in an extreme bull market (+20% rally), as capital appears to be rotating out of deep OTM bets.

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