While checking the weather is a daily habit, precisely predicting and betting on the exact lowest temperature at a specific airport for a single day is uncommon. Prior to seeing this market, regular people would rarely think about or calculate such micro and precise temperature data.

April 14, 2026, 22:33 to April 15, 2026, 00:43 - The price of the 11°C option plunged from 41.3c to 28.25c, and the 10°C option dropped from 14.95c to 3.7c, as midnight observational data prompted market recalibration. April 14, 2026, 06:18 to 07:23 - The price of the 9°C option crashed from 28.35c to 5.0c due to morning weather forecasts upwardly revising the expected lowest temperature.

Moderate risk exists. Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and involves nuanced rules (e.g., specific exceptions for main feed replies, and counting deleted tweets if captured within 5 mins). This can cause discrepancies between the tracker data and native user observations on X.

Highly exotic. Betting on the exact tweet volume of a public figure over a random 48-hour window is a pure novelty market tailored for crypto-native speculation, rarely seen in traditional or serious forecasting.

April 14, 2026 19:23 - April 15, 2026 03:58, the price of '66-67°F' surged from 8.3c to 26.3c, as updated forecasts and actual observations made this range a likely candidate for the lowest temperature. April 14, 2026 10:43 - April 15, 2026 03:58, the price of '64-65°F' plummeted from 62c to 13c, as actual data or revised forecasts significantly reduced its probability. April 14, 2026 02:03 - April 14, 2026 04:13, the price of '78°F or higher' dropped sharply from 41.5c to 19c, as the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures being the minimum for the day was further ruled out.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The price of the '<44m' option surged from 52.5c to 91.5c, while the '44-48m' option plummeted from 37.5c to 7.2c, alongside massive drops in the '48-52m' and '>52m' brackets. This was driven by the latest weekday box office tracking data as the weekend approached, convincing the market that a steeper drop would prevent the total from exceeding $44 million. No price movement greater than 10c had been observed prior to this.

The title asks for Seoul's lowest temperature, but the resolution explicitly relies on data from the Incheon International Airport Station. Incheon is a separate, coastal city, and its temperature often differs from central Seoul. This discrepancy is a significant trap for traders who only read the title.

While weather betting is a known niche in prediction markets, predicting the exact lowest temperature for a specific city on a specific day is highly granular and not a mainstream topic of natural daily concern for the general public.

From 19:23 to 21:33 on April 14, 2026, the 9°C option surged from 3.75c to 81.5c, then plummeted back to 3.8c by 23:43. Concurrently, the 10°C option dropped from 95.15c to 42.5c before rebounding to 95.9c. This extreme short-term volatility was likely caused by a temporary artifact in forecasting models or large capital liquidity sweeps right before resolution. From 18:18 to 19:23 on April 14, 2026, the 10°C option surged from 52.25c to 95.15c, while the 9°C option plummeted from 37.5c to 3.75c. This occurred because, as April 15 approached, the latest high-precision weather forecasts confidently locked the minimum temperature at Incheon Airport around 10°C, removing prior uncertainty.