[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest developments for the NY-11 district (Staten Island/South Brooklyn) and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth. Given this is for the 2026 midterms, is the current liquidity ($3186) sufficient for meaningful entry? Is there significant mispricing or a liquidity premium due to the long time horizon?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest developments for the NY-11 district (Staten Island/South Brooklyn) and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth. Given this is for the 2026 midterms, is the current liquidity ($3186) sufficient for meaningful entry? Is there significant mispricing or a liquidity premium due to the long time horizon?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Redistricting Impact: Search for the voting results and margins of victory in NY-11 over the last three election cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Has the district's boundary changed significantly due to New York redistricting in a way that favors the GOP or Dems? What is the reelection track record of the incumbent (e.g., Nicole Malliotakis)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Redistricting Impact: Search for the voting results and margins of victory in NY-11 over the last three election cycles (2020, 2022, 2024). Has the district's boundary changed significantly due to New York redistricting in a way that favors the GOP or Dems? What is the reelection track record of the incumbent (e.g., Nicole Malliotakis)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the break-even requirement if you lock up funds in this market until Nov 4, 2026 (approx. 20 months), compared to putting the same capital into DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (assuming 4-5% APY). Does the current implied probability offer enough excess return to justify this long-term capital lock-up?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the break-even requirement if you lock up funds in this market until Nov 4, 2026 (approx. 20 months), compared to putting the same capital into DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (assuming 4-5% APY). Does the current implied probability offer enough excess return to justify this long-term capital lock-up?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NY-11 House Election Winner

Politics|$8,427 Vol|

202 days 9 hrs

NY-11 House Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.08 10:54

Top Undervalued

+1.5¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+1¢

Democratic Party(Yes)

NY-11 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +1.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

New York's 11th Congressional District (NY-11) is represented by incumbent Republican Nicole Malliot...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

83.5¢

16.5¢

85¢

15¢

+1.5¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

14¢

86¢

15¢

85¢

+1¢

0¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 5, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the Republican Party plummeted from 80.5c to 64c due to large sell orders in an illiquid market rather than deteriorating fundamentals, as the Democratic Party's price did not rise correspondingly. March 6, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the Republican Party fluctuated narrowly between 80c and 84c and stabilized. The market entered a consolidation phase after digesting the major positive news earlier in the month, with traders reaching a consensus on the new 'Likely Republican' reality. March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, the Republican Party price oscillated violently between 0.875c and 0.77c due to volatility from profit-taking and price discovery. March 2, 2026 - March 5, 2026, the Republican Party price surged from 39.5c to 83c as legal risks regarding redistricting were removed, fundamentally shifting the seat's rating.

Divergence

The market's implied probability of a Republican win has dropped to 64%, showing significant divergence from mainstream political analysis, which rates the district as 'Likely Republican' with chances over 85%. This divergence is primarily caused by insufficient liquidity or anomalous whale trading in the prediction market, rather than a genuine shift in electoral prospects. The fact that the Democratic price remained unchanged at 14c further corroborates this.