April 20, 2026 (05:43-06:48) - The price of the 9°C option plummeted from 19.5c to 7.5c, and the 8°C option dropped from 16c to 5.95c. This is due to weather forecasts stabilizing and pointing towards warmer temperatures (11-12°C) as the date approaches, leading the market to quickly discount the likelihood of colder weather.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 22°C option surged from 25.5c to 45c, and the 23°C option surged from 22c to 37.5c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 7c. This occurred because as the date approached, meteorological models provided more precise temperature forecasts, eliminating the likelihood of lower temperatures and locking expectations in the 22°C to 23°C range.

Resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker), introducing risks of data discrepancies due to downtime or missed deleted tweets. Additionally, the specific exclusion of general replies but inclusion of 'main feed replies' can easily lead to classification disputes.

Predicting the exact number of posts an individual makes over a specific two-day window is highly niche and arbitrary. The general public does not naturally ponder this, making it a highly gamified and novelty-driven market.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 12°C option surged from 11c to roughly 27c, and the 11°C option jumped from 13c to 25c, while the 8°C option plummeted from 23.5c down to around 3c. This was caused by a major update in short-term weather forecasting models, projecting a warm front for Toronto on April 21 and significantly raising the expected high temperature.