Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?
Finance|$1,156 Vol|
time2 days 7 hrs

Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.13 16:00
Top Undervalued
0¢
(Yes)

Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings? AI analysis: • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
After a sharp sell-off that briefly drove the price down to 64.5 cents, the market has quickly rebou...
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Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 15?
Weather|$12.7k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
25°C(No)
+5.5¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological sources, the highest temperature for Chengdu Shuangliu Intern...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is an everyday activity, betting on the exact temperature range of a specific city's weather station on a given day is a relatively niche and novelty topic for the general public.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Denver on April 15?
Weather|$11.8k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Denver on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+24.5¢
70-71°F(Yes)
+21¢
66-67°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest 7-day weather forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) specifically ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Divergence
Currently, the '64-65°F' option is leading the market at 22.5c, while '70-71°F' is only priced at 18c. This diverges from the latest explicit NWS forecast, which predicts a high near 70°F. The divergence is likely due to the market lagging behind the latest weather updates or investors factoring in the volatility of high-altitude weather. As time progresses and forecast certainty increases, capital will likely migrate towards the 70-71°F range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 15?
Weather|$10.5k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+9.2¢
21°C or below(No)
+6.5¢
24°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Wuhan (Tianhe International Airpo...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Moderately exotic. While betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche market, weather prediction is a common daily derivative format in prediction markets and is not entirely bizarre.
Divergence
Current meteorological models (such as AccuWeather) forecast a high of around 22°C for April 15. However, the market assigns the highest probability to 23°C (34c) and 24°C (23c). This suggests that traders anticipate the actual recorded temperature will slightly exceed the mainstream forecasted values, creating a moderate divergence.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Weather|$45.9k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+26¢
15°C or higher(No)
+16.4¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15, 2026, is expec...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is a prediction about the high temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, setting up a specific short-term prediction market for an exact degree in Warsaw is a relatively niche and specific market.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 15?
Weather|$13.9k Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 15?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
62-63°F(No)
+7.5¢
58-59°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecast data, the maximum temperature at San Francisco Internationa...
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Movers
On April 13, 2026, the price of '56-57°F' dropped from 16.5c to 4.5c. This occurred because, as the date approaches, weather forecast models are trending towards higher temperatures, largely ruling out the lower temperature ranges. On April 13, 2026, the prices for '50-51°F', '52-53°F', and '54-55°F' also saw significant declines, similarly due to short-term forecasts confirming that the temperature will likely be above 55°F.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
YesNo
73¢
27¢
73¢
27¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
PEP
The event directly targets PepsiCo's (PEP) earnings performance. The resolution will directly trigger a tradable price movement in the stock on earnings day (typically a medium impact). Furthermore, as a consumer staples giant, its results may act as a bellwether, causing minor sympathy price action in its main competitor, Coca-Cola (KO).
Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 64.5c to 73c, as the market digested earlier over-pessimism and dip buyers stepped in, bringing the price back to a reasonable level reflecting its historical earnings beat probability. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 76c to 64.5c. As the earnings release date approached, the market likely absorbed negative buy-side expectations or conservative analyst guidance, causing a short-term drop in confidence. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 87c to around 76c. Some traders opted for profit-taking ahead of the earnings release, causing extreme optimism to cool down. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 54c to 84c. Market consensus regarding PepsiCo's ability to beat EPS estimates significantly strengthened, prompting an influx of buying.

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