Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics|$744.0k Vol|
time0 s

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.11 23:50
Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Alfonso López Chau(No)
+0.4¢
Rafael López Aliaga(No)
+0.2¢
Roberto Sánchez Palomino(No)

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
With only hours left until the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, market confid...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?
Weather|$23.8k Vol|
time37 mins

Highest temperature in Karachi on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+60¢
35°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data, the prices for 34°C and 35°C or higher have increased, reflecting ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a standard template in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature for a specific city in Pakistan remains a relatively niche topic that falls outside mainstream public interest.
Movers
Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '35°C or higher' rose from 26c to 50c, as approaching settlement times and weather forecasts indicated a higher likelihood of extreme temperatures, prompting traders to buy this option. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '34°C' increased from 14c to 32c, driven by temperature forecasts trending around 34°C, increasing its probability. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, the price of '33°C' peaked at 31c before falling to 21.5c, showing fluctuating market assessments of its likelihood. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 19:03:18, the price of '31°C' dropped from 14c to 0.75c, as actual temperature expectations are significantly higher, making this option highly unlikely. Between 2026-04-15 06:08:18 and 2026-04-16 17:58:18, prices for '29°C' and below all dropped below 1c, as such low temperatures are extremely unlikely given the current season and forecasts.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Weather|$49.6k Vol|
time37 mins

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+89.7¢
26°C or below(No)
+34.9¢
29°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on April ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
Between 14:43 and 16:53 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 28.5c to 37.5c (later retracing to 31.5c), driven by updated weather forecast data approaching the resolution time that significantly increased market expectations for this temperature range. Between 11:28 and 14:43 on April 16, 2026, the price of the 27°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 8c (later recovering to 13.5c), as the forecasted temperature median shifted upward, drastically reducing the expected probability of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?
Weather|$42.6k Vol|
time37 mins

Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+69.7¢
16°C(No)
+19.7¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast trends and prediction market price movements, the expected high...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city is a standard proposition in prediction markets, but it still carries a moderate level of novelty for the general public who wouldn't naturally ponder or bet on such localized daily data.
Movers
From April 15 to April 16, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 20c to 32.5c, and the 16°C option surged from 20c to 31c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 28c to 12.5c. This is due to updated meteorological forecasts closer to the expiration date indicating a significant downward revision in Cape Town's expected high temperatures due to a cold front.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?
Weather|$38.1k Vol|
time37 mins

Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+63.8¢
33°C(No)
+29.8¢
34°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts, the highest temperature at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in Jakarta...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard derivative play in prediction markets, but the general public rarely makes specific forecasts for such highly granular local data.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 31°C plummeted from 20.5c to 4c, and 37°C or higher crashed from 16c to 0.4c. Other non-core options such as 35°C, 36°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw drops exceeding 10c. This occurred because as the resolution date approaches, weather forecasts became much more precise, ruling out extreme temperature scenarios and causing funds to concentrate rapidly on the core 32°C-34°C probability range.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?
Weather|$50.6k Vol|
time37 mins

Highest temperature in Milan on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
24°C(No)
+6.5¢
23°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature for Milan Malpensa on April 17 is exp...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
While weather forecasting is a highly common daily topic, betting on the exact highest temperature down to a whole degree at a specific airport station remains a relatively niche and quantitative activity in prediction markets.
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 24°C surged from 26.5c to 44.5c, and 23°C surged from 14c to 41.5c, while 22°C plummeted from 19.5c to 3.5c. This is because as the date approaches, weather forecasting models have become more concentrated and revised their expectations for the high temperature upward to the 23-24°C range.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Alfonso López Chau
YesNo
0.5¢
99.5¢
100¢
+0.5¢
Rafael López Aliaga
YesNo
4.4¢
95.6¢
96¢
+0.4¢

Expand to view all 23 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
SCCO
EPU
Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major gold producer. The election outcome directly dictates mining policy, taxation, and the environment for foreign investment. If a radical left or anti-mining candidate (like certain figures listed) leads the first round, it would trigger fears of nationalization or strikes, causing significant volatility in the Peru ETF (EPU) and miners with heavy Peruvian exposure (e.g., Southern Copper, SCCO). Copper prices might also see minor impact due to supply disruption fears.
Movers
2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, Ricardo Belmont's price retreated from 24.6c to 14.8c, as the initial frenzy of anti-establishment voters cooled down and market sentiment became more rational just before voting. 2026-04-09 - 2026-04-10, Ricardo Belmont's price surged from 5.75c to 24.6c, due to a rapid late-stage consolidation of anti-establishment voters, making him the strongest dark horse to challenge Fujimori. 2026-04-09 - 2026-04-10, Keiko Fujimori's price crashed from 82c to 62c, driven by a loss of polling momentum in the final hours and potential strategic voting backlash against her. 2026-04-06 - 2026-04-09, Keiko Fujimori's price surged from 62c to 82c, driven by a massive late-stage consolidation of right-wing votes ahead of the election, further securing her first-round lead. 2026-04-05 - 2026-04-09, Carlos Álvarez's price dropped from 16.85c to 5.75c, likely due to a temporary rise in polling support and positive feedback on campaign activities failing to maintain momentum. 2026-04-05 - 2026-04-09, Rafael López Aliaga's price dropped from 12c to 6.55c, driven by weak late-stage campaign performance and right-wing voter migration to Keiko Fujimori. 2026-04-05 - 2026-04-09, Roberto Sánchez Palomino's price crashed from 9.65c to 1.25c, indicating a late-stage collapse in support as voters migrate to stronger contenders.

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