[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the low-liquidity order book (Volume: $4820) and check if the bid-ask spread is excessive. Simultaneously, review the discussion section for local insider news regarding potential candidates like Ashley Kalus or Jessica de la Cruz to reassess the fair value and capital lock-up risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the low-liquidity order book (Volume: $4820) and check if the bid-ask spread is excessive. Simultaneously, review the discussion section for local insider news regarding potential candidates like Ashley Kalus or Jessica de la Cruz to reassess the fair value and capital lock-up risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining & Campaign Intent: Given that September 2026 is far away, search Twitter and local Rhode Island news sources (e.g., The Providence Journal) for the listed options like Robert Raimondo and Jessica de la Cruz. Verify if they have officially announced an 'exploratory committee' or declared their candidacy to rule out the risk of them being merely speculative placeholders.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players Mining & Campaign Intent: Given that September 2026 is far away, search Twitter and local Rhode Island news sources (e.g., The Providence Journal) for the listed options like Robert Raimondo and Jessica de la Cruz. Verify if they have officially announced an 'exploratory committee' or declared their candidacy to rule out the risk of them being merely speculative placeholders.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Considering the resolution date is September 8, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital in this market for several years. Compare it against risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or Treasury bonds (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if the potential ROI on a favorite candidate is sufficient to justify the long-term capital lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Considering the resolution date is September 8, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital in this market for several years. Compare it against risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or Treasury bonds (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if the potential ROI on a favorite candidate is sufficient to justify the long-term capital lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Politics|$4,180 Vol|

145 days 23 hrs

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.03 01:38

Top Undervalued

+3.5¢

Elaine Pelino(No)

+2.5¢

Aaron Guckian(No)

+1.2¢

Ashley Kalus(No)

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +3.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Aaron Guckian's price recently surged from 34c to 61c before slightly correcting to around 55c, indi...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Elaine Pelino

YesNo

28.5¢

71.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+3.5¢

Aaron Guckian

YesNo

62.5¢

37.5¢

60¢

40¢

0¢

+2.5¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

March 27, 2026 - April 1, 2026, Aaron Guckian's price rapidly climbed from 34.05c to 61.2c. The reason is likely internal developments or early endorsements confirming his central campaign status within the party as the primary cycle approaches. March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Aaron Guckian's price experienced significant volatility, first rallying from 54.6c to 67.8c (+13.2c), then correcting back to 56c within a day. The reason was an overreaction to his solidified lead followed by a correction driven by profit-taking. February 26, 2026 - February 28, 2026, Aaron Guckian's price skyrocketed from 3.8c to 64c, while Ashley Kalus plunged from 54.5c to 22c, and Elaine Pelino dropped from 37.5c to 10.5c. The reason is a fundamental repricing of the RI GOP primary field; Guckian likely formally entered the race or received decisive backing during this period, displacing Kalus as the frontrunner. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Ashley Kalus's price rose from 36.5c to 43.5c, while Robert Raimondo's price dropped from 44.5c to 42c. The reason was a rotation of capital from the overvalued Raimondo to the fundamentally stronger Kalus.