April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The price of the '<44m' option surged from 52.5c to 91.5c, while the '44-48m' option plummeted from 37.5c to 7.2c, alongside massive drops in the '48-52m' and '>52m' brackets. This was driven by the latest weekday box office tracking data as the weekend approached, convincing the market that a steeper drop would prevent the total from exceeding $44 million. No price movement greater than 10c had been observed prior to this.

The rules exclude general replies but include 'main feed replies' and deleted tweets captured within 5 minutes. Since the market heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than simply looking at his official X profile count, this creates potential discrepancies and moderate resolution risks.

Predicting the exact number of posts an individual makes during a specific week is highly entertaining and niche. The general public rarely thinks about or tracks such trivial data points.

This is a highly specific novelty market betting on the exact tweet count of the official White House account over a single week. Outside of niche prediction market traders, the general public rarely considers or tracks this trivial metric.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, prices for multiple core range options (e.g., 100-119, 120-139, 140-159, 160-179, 180-199) plummeted from around 48c-50c to 15c-30c. The reason is that upon market creation on April 11, liquidity was extremely low and wide market-maker spreads caused multiple options to reflect artificially high prices; as real volume entered, prices rapidly corrected to a rational sum (~100%). April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price for the 120-139 option rebounded from 4.1c to 13.5c. The reason is that as the monitoring period approached, early signs of slight deceleration in posting frequency brought this lower bracket back into consideration for some traders.

While checking the weather is a daily habit, precisely predicting and betting on the exact lowest temperature at a specific airport for a single day is uncommon. Prior to seeing this market, regular people would rarely think about or calculate such micro and precise temperature data.

April 14, 2026, 22:33 to April 15, 2026, 00:43 - The price of the 11°C option plunged from 41.3c to 28.25c, and the 10°C option dropped from 14.95c to 3.7c, as midnight observational data prompted market recalibration. April 14, 2026, 06:18 to 07:23 - The price of the 9°C option crashed from 28.35c to 5.0c due to morning weather forecasts upwardly revising the expected lowest temperature.

The rules present some nuanced risks: while replies do not count towards the total, replies that appear on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Additionally, deleted posts will count if they remain available long enough (~5 minutes) to be captured. If the Polymarket tracker fails to update correctly, Truth Social itself acts as a secondary source, which creates a risk of discrepancy between the tracker's count and manual counting.

While Trump's posting habits are a common topic, creating a prediction market to bet on the exact number of posts (including reposts and quotes) within a specific week is quite novel and niche. The general public rarely considers or predicts such hyper-micro metrics.

April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, multiple options experienced massive price crashes. '200+' plummeted from 41.5c to 3.75c, '60-79' dropped from 32c to 5.05c, and '140-159' fell from 31.5c to 7.5c. The reason is that the early market suffered from severe mispricing (the sum of all YES probabilities reached as high as 230%). As liquidity entered, arbitrageurs corrected this mathematical anomaly, bringing prices back to realistic baselines.