This is a prediction about the high temperature in a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, setting up a specific short-term prediction market for an exact degree in Warsaw is a relatively niche and specific market.

April 13, 2026 04:48 - April 13, 2026 13:28, the price of '14°C' plummeted from 24c to 6.5c, while '15°C or higher' surged from 73.5c to 88c. This was due to updated weather models confirming a warmer trend, pushing the expected high temperature firmly into the 15°C and above range.

While weather forecasting is an everyday activity, betting on the exact temperature range of a specific city's weather station on a given day is a relatively niche and novelty topic for the general public.

Between 2026-04-13 and 2026-04-14, the price of 22°C plummeted from 23.5c to 8c, while the prices of 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C all surged by more than 10c (e.g., 24°C rose from 20c to 34.5c). This was driven by updated weather forecast models closer to the resolution date shifting the consensus high temperature range from 22°C to 23°C-25°C. No historical price spike data available. Current option prices remain within reasonable expectations, with no abnormal fluctuations exceeding 10c over the past 3 days.

Moderately exotic. While betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche market, weather prediction is a common daily derivative format in prediction markets and is not entirely bizarre.

April 14, 2026: The price of '21°C or below' surged from 11.3c to 22c, while '24°C' plunged from 21.5c to 9.5c. This was driven by the latest weather model updates near the resolution date, which indicated a cooler expected high temperature, shifting the probability distribution downwards. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026: Price movements across all options were relatively gentle with no single option experiencing a sudden jump or drop of more than 10 cents.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '62-63°F' rose from 23.5c to 34c, as short-term weather forecast models slightly increased the likelihood of extreme high temperatures. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '66°F or higher' plummeted from 26c to 4.75c, because as the date approaches, the probability of extreme heat has been largely ruled out by forecasts. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '58-59°F' dropped from 22.5c to 16.5c, as the forecast median shifted entirely above 60°F. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of '56-57°F' dropped from 16.5c to 4c. This occurred because, as the date approaches, weather forecast models are trending towards higher temperatures, largely ruling out the lower temperature ranges. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the prices for '50-51°F', '52-53°F', and '54-55°F' also saw significant declines, similarly due to short-term forecasts confirming that the temperature will likely be above 55°F.

April 13, 2026 08:03 - April 13, 2026 11:18, the price of the 64-65°F option surged from 11.5c to 29.5c because weather forecast models adjusted the expected high temperatures downwards to the mid-60s earlier that day. April 13, 2026 04:48 - April 14, 2026 00:18, the price of the 70-71°F option dropped from 18c to 8c because as the expiration date approaches, multiple weather sources confirmed that temperatures are unlikely to reach 70°F, causing the market to converge towards the mid-to-upper 60s range.