AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.06 13:41
Top Undervalued
+36.1¢
Benoît Saint Denis(No)
+19¢
Ilia Topuria(No)
+16.3¢
Dan Hooker(Yes)
UFC: Who will Charles Oliveira fight next? AI analysis: • +36.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market pricing exhibits significant emotional bias. Arman Tsarukyan, as the #1 lightweight c...
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Benoît Saint Denis
YesNo
41.1¢
58.9¢
5¢
95¢
0¢
+36.1¢
Ilia Topuria
YesNo
21¢
79¢
2¢
98¢
0¢
+19¢
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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Ilia Topuria's price spiked from 14.5c to 31c due to social media rumors suggesting he might move up to lightweight to avenge Max Holloway's loss to Oliveira, before settling back to 19.5c as hype faded.
March 19, 2026 - March 22, 2026, Justin Gaethje's price crashed from 31.6c to 13.2c as the market realized his booked fight with Ilia Topuria precludes him from facing Oliveira.
March 16, 2026 - March 22, 2026, Benoît Saint Denis's price rallied from 19.3c to 31.7c, driven by market misinterpretation of rumors regarding Arman's next opponent.
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Mateusz Gamrot's price collapsed from 40c to 12.6c, a necessary correction as traders realized he was actually Oliveira's previous opponent before UFC 326.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market pricing and mainstream MMA consensus. The market currently prices Benoît Saint Denis as a co-favorite alongside #1 contender Arman Tsarukyan (both around 32c). However, standard MMA media and matchmaking logic dictate that Oliveira, coming off a major win, will fight a top-5 contender (like Arman or Hooker) or fight for the title. BSD is lower-ranked and does not fit the UFC's matchmaking trajectory for Oliveira at this stage, indicating that market participants are heavily skewed by misinformation and noise.