April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option further climbed from 27c to 38.5c, while the 78-79°F option plummeted from 21c to 8.5c. This was due to approaching resolution and updated weather models confirming the incoming heat wave, eliminating the chances of milder temperatures. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 8c to 27c, as new weather models predicted temperatures might be slightly higher than previously expected. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 74-75°F option fell from 14c to 3.9c, as weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of lower temperatures.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' plummeted from 25c to 4c before recovering to 8.9c, as weather models adjusted the expected temperatures upward during the rain event, pricing out extreme cold. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 34c to 19.5c before rebounding to 31c, reflecting market indecision and minor model adjustments regarding the exact magnitude of the frontal cooling.

There is a noticeable divergence. Mainstream forecasts (like NWS and KING 5) project a high around 50-51°F, yet the market assigns the highest probability (~68%) to the colder 46-49°F range. This suggests the market might be relying on more aggressive cold-front models (like specific high-res local models) or anticipating that continuous rain will suppress the actual daytime high more than generic forecasts suggest.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 15°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 8.5c, while the 17°C option rose from 27.5c to 38c, as weather models adjusted their peak temperature forecasts from a cooler 15-16°C up to 16-17°C as the date approached. April 12, 2026, the 18°C option spiked to 35c before dropping back to 21c, due to intraday volatility in weather forecasts that eventually settled on the 16-17°C range.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 29°C option plummeted from 25.5c to 4.3c, the 25°C option dropped from 25c to 7.5c, while the 28°C option rose from 20.5c to 30.5c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models have converged, ruling out more extreme temperatures (25°C and 29°C) and concentrating market confidence in the 26°C-28°C range. In the previous analysis, no options had experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the prior 3 days.

April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 40c to 51c, as weather forecast data further confirmed 16°C as the most likely high temperature approaching resolution. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of 17°C fell back from a high of 43.5c to 30.5c, because as time progressed, the likelihood of reaching 17°C decreased, with forecasts trending towards a slightly cooler 16°C. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 16°C surged steadily from 17.5c to a peak of 52.5c before settling at 38.5c, as weather forecasting models became much more certain about highs reaching 16°C or above as the date approached. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 17°C climbed significantly from 17.5c to a high of 43.5c, driven by updated Wunderground forecasts indicating a high of 63°F (approx. 17°C). April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of 14°C plummeted from a high of 23c to under 1c, because updated forecasts consistently indicated temperatures would be significantly higher than 14°C.