[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest bid/ask depth for Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPM, etc., on Polymarket, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest G-SIB Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios and regulatory news to see if current odds accurately reflect systemic risk.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest bid/ask depth for Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPM, etc., on Polymarket, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest G-SIB Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios and regulatory news to see if current odds accurately reflect systemic risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Financial Derivatives Comparison: Search for the current 5-Year Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads for these banks (especially UBS or Deutsche Bank post-Credit Suisse) to convert them into implied default probabilities, and compare them with Polymarket odds to identify arbitrage gaps between Wall Street pricing and retail sentiment.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Financial Derivatives Comparison: Search for the current 5-Year Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads for these banks (especially UBS or Deutsche Bank post-Credit Suisse) to convert them into implied default probabilities, and compare them with Polymarket odds to identify arbitrage gaps between Wall Street pricing and retail sentiment.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital Analysis: Given the resolution date of June 30, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying "No" shares at current prices, and compare this against the risk-free rate of US Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the capital lock-up is economically justifiable.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital Analysis: Given the resolution date of June 30, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying "No" shares at current prices, and compare this against the risk-free rate of US Treasuries for the same duration to determine if the capital lock-up is economically justifiable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which banks will fail by June 30?

Finance|$408.7k Vol|

76 days 16 hrs

Which banks will fail by June 30? - AI Found 6.7% APY

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.09 11:06

Top Undervalued

+47.7¢

RBC(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

1¢

Arbitrage

6.7%

Annualized yield

Which banks will fail by June 30? AI analysis: • +47.7¢ undervalued • 6.7% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy 'No' shares of top-tier G-SIBs like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs (currently around 98.4c-98.5c). Plan Description: While there is no direct risk-free arbitrage, buying 'No' shares on exceptionally stable top-tier ba...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With the exception of RBC (Royal Bank of Canada), the fundamental probability of major G-SIBs and la...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

RBC

YesNo

1.3¢

98.7¢

49¢

51¢

+47.7¢

0¢

US Bank

YesNo

15.35¢

84.65¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+14.3¢

Expand to view all 19 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

Gold

S&P 500

XLF

US 10Y Yield

The banks listed are primarily Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). The failure of any of them by 2026 would trigger a systemic financial crisis comparable to 2008. This would cause a massive crash in equities (S&P 500, XLF) and a flight to safety (dropping US Treasury yields, boosting Gold). This is a high-stakes 'black swan' hedging event.

Movers

April 3, 2026 - April 9, 2026, RBC's 'Yes' price suddenly registered at 49c, an extreme and rare anomaly. Given the limited snapshot history, this likely represents sudden rumors of insolvency, credit downgrades, or a liquidity drain caused by whale buying in the prediction market. March 27, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the market remained extremely stable with no fluctuations exceeding 10 cents. Prices showed a slow decay trend, retracing from around 2.5c to 1.2c-2.4c. March 20, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the market remained extremely stable. Most banks' prices fluctuated within a very narrow 1.7c to 3.0c range. March 13, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the market remained generally stable with no drastic fluctuations. March 9, 2026 - March 12, 2026, prices showed a consistent downward trend of 1-2 cents, reflecting Theta decay. March 1, 2026 - March 4, 2026, the market was very calm, fluctuating narrowly between 2.5c and 4c.

Divergence

The market assigns a 49% probability of failure to RBC, marking a massive divergence from traditional financial consensus. As Canada's largest bank and a G-SIB, RBC benefits from implicit government backing and stringent capital requirements. Typically, its Credit Default Swap (CDS) implied default probability is negligible. This price highly likely overstates the actual risk, reflecting prediction market illiquidity or localized panic rather than real-world insolvency.